Hello everyone!
What a week it has been, right? Haha! For those feeling frustrated by the market, remember this: you're paying for a lesson. The market—especially the crypto market—doesn’t care about individual retail traders. It’s not actively trying to make you lose, but it does present opportunities. As a trader, you can either navigate these trends with a thoughtful approach—calculating your risk, setting stop-losses, and defining your targets—or you can gamble and hope for the best, like most retail traders do. If you choose the latter, the big players will outmaneuver you, making you sell at the bottom and buy at the peaks.
Rough picture
Regarding my analysis, this isn't my usual deep dive across all timeframes. I’ll be honest—I haven’t thoroughly analyzed everything. However, given the current market conditions and the high fear and greed index, I decided to share my rough thoughts. Even in their raw form, they still represent my current bias.
Monthly Timeframe (6M-3M-1M)
The larger timeframes dictate the overall market picture. We’ve clearly taken out the previous monthly candle and a key yellow zone below us, signaling that liquidity is still up for grabs. Combined with the fear and greed index, this suggests there’s still room for downside movement. Additionally, the price hitting the 0.61 extension indicated potential for a reversal (which has already occurred), giving us an opportunity to look lower.
Weekly & Daily Timeframes
The weekly chart gives more clarity on how far this move might extend. I typically mark previous closed candles with two yellow dotted lines, indicating liquidity is still available above or below those levels. Since we are currently in a daily downtrend and have just hit the 0.786 retracement (from 78K to 95K), it’s likely that we’ll complete this waveform towards the 0.21 - 0.61 region. This aligns with our "X marks the spot" zone on the weekly timeframe, somewhere between 0.618 - 0.786.
Many traders bought near the top and now hesitate to buy at the lows while sitting on red numbers. The truth is, if you enter the market without a plan, the market will make one for you—and most of the time, you won’t like it. You’re not just playing against yourself; you’re competing against major players who are obsessed with making money in this game, while you are simply the bait.
My Game Plan
I’ll risk around 3-5% on this trade to the upside, with a mandatory stop-loss to limit any major losses.
I’ll take partial profits along the way up.
I’m primarily scaling into altcoins this round, as I believe the percentage gains there are more attractive compared to BTC at the moment.
Have a safe flight in crypto! 🚀
What a week it has been, right? Haha! For those feeling frustrated by the market, remember this: you're paying for a lesson. The market—especially the crypto market—doesn’t care about individual retail traders. It’s not actively trying to make you lose, but it does present opportunities. As a trader, you can either navigate these trends with a thoughtful approach—calculating your risk, setting stop-losses, and defining your targets—or you can gamble and hope for the best, like most retail traders do. If you choose the latter, the big players will outmaneuver you, making you sell at the bottom and buy at the peaks.
Rough picture
Regarding my analysis, this isn't my usual deep dive across all timeframes. I’ll be honest—I haven’t thoroughly analyzed everything. However, given the current market conditions and the high fear and greed index, I decided to share my rough thoughts. Even in their raw form, they still represent my current bias.
Monthly Timeframe (6M-3M-1M)
The larger timeframes dictate the overall market picture. We’ve clearly taken out the previous monthly candle and a key yellow zone below us, signaling that liquidity is still up for grabs. Combined with the fear and greed index, this suggests there’s still room for downside movement. Additionally, the price hitting the 0.61 extension indicated potential for a reversal (which has already occurred), giving us an opportunity to look lower.
Weekly & Daily Timeframes
The weekly chart gives more clarity on how far this move might extend. I typically mark previous closed candles with two yellow dotted lines, indicating liquidity is still available above or below those levels. Since we are currently in a daily downtrend and have just hit the 0.786 retracement (from 78K to 95K), it’s likely that we’ll complete this waveform towards the 0.21 - 0.61 region. This aligns with our "X marks the spot" zone on the weekly timeframe, somewhere between 0.618 - 0.786.
Many traders bought near the top and now hesitate to buy at the lows while sitting on red numbers. The truth is, if you enter the market without a plan, the market will make one for you—and most of the time, you won’t like it. You’re not just playing against yourself; you’re competing against major players who are obsessed with making money in this game, while you are simply the bait.
My Game Plan
I’ll risk around 3-5% on this trade to the upside, with a mandatory stop-loss to limit any major losses.
I’ll take partial profits along the way up.
I’m primarily scaling into altcoins this round, as I believe the percentage gains there are more attractive compared to BTC at the moment.
Have a safe flight in crypto! 🚀
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.