BITCOIN HALVING ANTICIPATION (chapter II) - road to 50k
Bitco follows a recurring path that accompanies the price to the halving date. Timings are not that precise, and we just had two halving before the third expected for May 20 so we do not have many data to rely on, BUT the plot has been the same for now, and the first part of it is being confirmed also this time.
The graph do not shows data prior to 2016 so I can just show what happened during the last Halving, but you can check yourselves that similar thing happened in the 2012 one.
Recurrent things are:
1) A prior MAX (all time high at the time: last one in our case is the 20k one, in 2016 I drawed it with a line at 1040)
2) followed by a crash (we do not care much now about predicting the MIN of a crash at this time, as it is not the point of this idea)
Then, as we approach the halving of rewards, we have 2 SPIKES
3) 1st one: retracement in the range of 38.2%-61.8% of the leg down, followed by consolidation within the triangle: it happened 1y before the H in 2012, 9mo before in 2016
4) 2nd spike, higher than the previous (height is predictable with Fibo), 5mo before the halving in 2012 and 1mo in 2016.
5) retracement to find support on the upper side of the triangle.
6) start of a huge bull run, beginning from immediately after to few months after the H occurred.
What happened after halvings in the past we already know :). On top left I identified possible level to be reached using Fibo extension of the first impulse (1st spike)
WHERE ARE WE NOW
With 2020 in sight, we already had the first spike 1y and 3mo before the halving, so we can be either consolidating or finding lower levels (all ok as far as we are inside the triangle) waiting for the second imminent spike in 1-5 months from now according to past data.
5000-7000 area is good to accumulate, keeping an eye open in case it break up the triangle -> could mean the second spike is on the way,
Bitco is now much more mature than years ago, it moves a lot more money so much more is needed to move its price, and it is much closer to its potential price (that I identify in the range of 100k-125k as of now, will see why in another moment), so movements can be slower and occur at different timings, but I am confident this is not far from the actual future scenario.
The graph do not shows data prior to 2016 so I can just show what happened during the last Halving, but you can check yourselves that similar thing happened in the 2012 one.
Recurrent things are:
1) A prior MAX (all time high at the time: last one in our case is the 20k one, in 2016 I drawed it with a line at 1040)
2) followed by a crash (we do not care much now about predicting the MIN of a crash at this time, as it is not the point of this idea)
Then, as we approach the halving of rewards, we have 2 SPIKES
3) 1st one: retracement in the range of 38.2%-61.8% of the leg down, followed by consolidation within the triangle: it happened 1y before the H in 2012, 9mo before in 2016
4) 2nd spike, higher than the previous (height is predictable with Fibo), 5mo before the halving in 2012 and 1mo in 2016.
5) retracement to find support on the upper side of the triangle.
6) start of a huge bull run, beginning from immediately after to few months after the H occurred.
What happened after halvings in the past we already know :). On top left I identified possible level to be reached using Fibo extension of the first impulse (1st spike)
WHERE ARE WE NOW
With 2020 in sight, we already had the first spike 1y and 3mo before the halving, so we can be either consolidating or finding lower levels (all ok as far as we are inside the triangle) waiting for the second imminent spike in 1-5 months from now according to past data.
5000-7000 area is good to accumulate, keeping an eye open in case it break up the triangle -> could mean the second spike is on the way,
Bitco is now much more mature than years ago, it moves a lot more money so much more is needed to move its price, and it is much closer to its potential price (that I identify in the range of 100k-125k as of now, will see why in another moment), so movements can be slower and occur at different timings, but I am confident this is not far from the actual future scenario.
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Penafian
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