BTCUSD is now very close to the 100% Fib level support ($5625). This brings us back to 11/12/2017, just before Bitfinex ramped up printing more and more Tethers.
It also puts BTC back into a linear trend line (vs the parabolic we saw last year).
If it doesn't bounce from $5500-5700, and this support range is broken, the next stop is at $3000.
That "printing teathers" meme was defunct some time ago.
But great analysis none-the-less.
rafabeton
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@AlphaWolf-Prime, Sure, printing not confirmed by auditors but there is a possibility that it may have happened. In any case, Tether printing or not, the last bull run started back to 11-12 Dec and it seems like we've hit the bottom. Maybe we'll see a double bottom on the trend line but right now I'd say we'll move sideways for a few days to consolidate. What do you think? Thank you for your comment.
UnknownUnicorn995432
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Agree 1000%
Excellent chart.
If Tether is fined or ordered to cease and desist (doesn't matter where they are registered, it is USD they are backing their tokens against, USA has full authority and can take international legal action if they want to) then prices can plunge.
Today, however, we may have a buying opportunity at a later stage, i.e. after the CFTC and SEC hearing (starts at 15:00 UTC/GMT or 10:00 EST).
Buy the rumor, sell the news - always played a role. Reverse can happen after the meeting.
rafabeton
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@doctorkesh, rumours are that Bitfinex has been selling BTC to claim back USDT and reduce their USD liability.
There are several possibilities. The one most likely, in my personal opinion, is this...
The 'break-up' with the audit firm was not a coincidence. There is definitely something very very wrong here.
Bitfinex lends money for margin trading and also funding at interest rates on its website to traders. This can be used as an 'equity' to back their USDT 'printing'. Now the main issue is how can an audit firm verify that all of these users are real and not fake, ie.. created by Bitfinex owners themselves. If the audit firm rubber-stamps it as 'approved' and it turns out to be fake, then the audit firm goes down with Bitfinex in the worst possible way. Also of note is that I found that Tether was involved with another audit firm in the past, and that relationship also broke down.
Tether is basically printing USD in the form of USDT. No country on this planet will allow a private firm to print their currency equivalent to bypass the financial regulations. USDT was created to bypass the financial regulations in the first place.
China is the model here as the country was the first one to identify these problems. So let's recap what they did.
Trading cryptos against fiat currency was the main issue which Chinese authorities identified would undermine their currency. They interfered in 2014 - start of the bear market. Ross Ulbricht case and fall of Mt Gox acted as catalysts. BTC was associated with illegal drugs trafficking in a lay person's view. BTC fell several times and eventually hit the bottom at around $150-$160 in August 2015.
This year, China has successfully eradicated cryptocurrency trading (to the best that any country can do) and even will remove all commercial mining soon. This time it is even bigger. BTC is associated with terrorism. They want to kill it so that they have one less thing to worry about when the next financial crash happens. They can control the price of gold and metals, but cryptos is beyond their reach.
This is happening systematically.
1. Regulations.
2. Tax.
2. Credit card bans.
3. Banking regulation - a customer will have to satisfy the banks the money was made legally. In UK, right now it is impossible to get a mortgage if a customer made money from cryptotrading and wants to pay the deposit amount from those profits. Of course if they have become millionaires they can buy the house in cash, but not get a mortgage. Link below:
4. Extreme scrutiny of cryptotrading to avoid money laundering and financial crimes in every manner - currently in progress. SEC and FCTC meeting today, another meeting on 14th February, G20 in March. Worst examples have been created by scammers already. ICOs were examples. Another example is this one.
FUD means Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt based on 'FALSE' information. Since all of the above is true, I don't accept this is FUD. to me, this is going to give us all a great buying opportunity at some point in March.
Wish everyone all the best.
rafabeton
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@doctorkesh, It was a great day to buy. I agree there is some FUD. My take is that institutional investors are accumulating now.
UnknownUnicorn995432
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@rafabeton, I am not sure if institutional investors will buy at this point. We have G20 summit coming up next month. More regulations and involvement of the Federal gov.
Yesterday's hearing was mostly about getting more funding for SEC and CFTC to increase their manpower. The rest was all drama and a request for more legislation and regulation.
This is at best a dead cat bounce for me until the downtrend line it broken. But it is still tradeable.
But great analysis none-the-less.