BTC | Macro Analysis

18 Okt 2023

TL;DR:

Phase 1 of the Bull Market (Intro) ended when we lost the Support Trendline in August.
Correction for the next couple of months (transition) before we kick off Phase 2 (Bull Run)

Bull Market Top: $100-130k


77° -> 59° -> 49° -> 37° -> 27°

Now you see why you can’t just copy & paste the previous cycle and expect the same return?
It’s really so funny when I see some ‘Ananlysts’ do that.

2009-2011 Bull Market had a very steep uptrend from bottom to top (77° angle). The following cycle was less steep and so on.



Over the past 13 years Bitcoin had the same Bull Market Pattern repeat. Let me introduce my BTC Bull Market Model which consists of 2 Phases:

[ Once the price finds the bottom, we see a swift recovery / dead cat bounce / echo bubble / whatever ABOVE the Support Trendline. That’s Phase 1 (Introduction to the BTC Bull Market)

Then we see a correction to that Phase 1 as we break BELOW the Support Trendline (I call it Transition)

The correction ends and we kick off the Phase 2 (Bull Run) which develops BELOW the Trendline and tests it from below only at the Top of the Bull Market. ]

So what about the Bull Market Top?

- 2013 Bull Market topped out right at the 2.272 Fib extension from the 2011 Top to bear market Bottom.

- 2017 Bull Market Top - same 2.272 Fib extension from the 2013 Top to Bottom.

- 2021 Bull Market Top - 1.618 Fib extension from the 2017 Top to bottom.

Returns diminish as the asset becomes heavier, it’s hard to deny that.

I think this cycle BTC will top out in 2025 somewhere between 1.272 & .1.414 Fib extension from the 2021 Top to Bottom