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[MAP] Bitcoin short to medium term²

Hello again.

I am reposting my last idea, but with an updated view. So some of you will notice it is familiar. Several of my ideas got hidden for referencing a social media, which is against the House rules of Tradingview. Not arguing with that but while most of them are old ideas now but I am reposting this one because it is still in play or can be used as a reference for the plays to come

Strategy written on the chart. After calling for a big sell on bitcoin at 9900$ and a new publication to confirm it at the first potential rebound zone (8400$), we are now in the 7200 area, at a support, near almost 100% retracement of the last bullish wave from 6400 to 10 000$ (which looks more corrective than impulsive, meaning we will more likely see more range action between 7000 and 9000 OR a drop below 7000, rather than a bullish case)

I am expecting a bounce up soon. Should it not come and we either slide down slowly or breach the blue support, shorting can be resumed. If bounce does come, optimal short values are around 7800 to 8000$. Higher values are most likely a retest of the downtrend line

I still have a bearish biais on bitcoin.

I keep shorting eth usd on daytrade/scalp setups, but don't long anymore even for short scalps. I have XRP on watchlist to jump back in at the first bullish signs as I have picked up high potential but unconfirmed signals.
reminder : I short ETHUSD because ethbtc is in downtrend, and look for xrp because xrpbtc is in reaccumulation. So if bitcoin goes up, xrp will outperform, if btc goes down, eth will dive even more.

Stay frosty

Nota

All the alts are dying. Bitcoin only slightly fell. Feels like a dump into bitcoin, which should follow. However this is very odd, and getting massively bought... Lowering my stop on the ETH usd short...

Nota

ETH USD (and bitcoin) building a bullish divergence. We could see a big squeeze now.
If bullish divergence plays out, the squeeze will be huge, and a good short re-entry
If black support is broken, we can go directly to the next support (alternative scenario)

Divergence :

Alternative scenario :

Nota

And there it is, the big squeeze. Selling big parts of my risky long becase we are still in downtrend

Nota

Expecting a range trade, rather than a bullish reversal

Still trading according to my chart

Nota

bottom of the range almost re-tested, now we have a fair chance of seeing a good bounce up before resuming downtrend
New short from 7529 closed at 7270, and will watch action for a real breakdown, or a bounce between 7150 and 7250

Nota

As expected, bounce of the range happened. Good profits here once more, we are at the minimum value that the range must reach and almost at short optimal value.

Get ready to close your longs. If we break
above 8k we have a reversal up to the downtrend of the triangle. Stay frosty

Nota

Rising wedge finished, retesting, altcoin bouncing nicely while btc goes sideways... Short zone within reach

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Red zone touched, longs closed, waiting to see what happens next. Short opened with stop loss

Congratulations

Nota

Took a first profit to secure the trade but setting looking perfect. Rest on stop loss

Nota

Got stopped at 7456 anticipating the pump, waiting for it to break back down or extinguish momentum to re-short.
Meanwhile I'm back in my XRP long that I published, as well as an EOS & BCH, and already took a profit

If we go higher, we could retest the top of the resistance. Altcoins looking bullish. I'm back to daytrading alts and finding gems in case we switch bullish short term

Nota

Near red square once more after a successful short, ready to get shorted again potentially. Altcoins on the starting blocks, waiting for the bullish signal on the other side. More range expected before the real move, still daytrading, moved my stop loss higher on the alts I bought in dip

Nota

Back on support, but strongly weakened. Highest probability : breaking it down after a rebound

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Broke down the support

Will make a new weekly strategy once we get a clearer view. More downside mid term expected

Potential reversal points to look for price action : now at 6700, 6100, 5800, 4800, 4400

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Momentum slowing down, we might get a *big* retrace or range from 6420, upward, before more down

Nota

Selloff slowing down on this capitulation wave, a wedge appearing, and oscilators showing bullish divergences on lower timeframes (not yet on higher)
We are still at the end of the first wave down in my opinion (of the overall final wave down)
But we could see some relief now. Still expecting a retest of 7000-7180$ region to be able to go further down. Should we continue to panic down, we will look for very strong buy opportunities with high volatility. For now we are scalping still, and preparing for a big squeeze of the shorters (upside movement) between now and 6100
We took a small partial profit on the short once again, as the momentum looks weaker than expected to reach 5700$-5800$

Nota

Selloff stopped at the bottom of the bigger wedge and bounced. Some are yelling the return of the bull market because of the SEC news, but i think it is too early for that

In this world cup period, let's stay in the sport theme.
I give you an Olympic flag

Nota

momentum getting squeezed
Big move expected very soon. Down expected with higher probability. Watching closely the reactions at the 6600 and 6800 resistances if we reach them

Nota

6800, the daily resistance is proving difficult to break. Not many attempts left before a big bearish wave

Nota

bulls getting weaker. Getting ready to resume the shorting

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Took a first profit off the shorts at 6377 to secure the trade. Continuation of the main weekly strategy with the same targets lower
Already a great profit from an average of a 6740 re-entry.

Watching reaction at supports over the next days to spot a potential huge short squeeze like in april (not expecting it, but better safe than sorry)

Stay frosty

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Last partial profit taking at support around 6100, in case we are in a range still (50% chance) up to 6900 again. The short from 6740 is closed. We still have parts of our 7800 short.

Moving the stop loss lower to lock more profits if reversal, or let ride the panic wave down to our final longterm targets.

Nota

5800 touched. Almost reached out 4400$ target

Nota

Scalp long made on alts, part of the short still running. We are at the red circle of my "olympic flag" chart of June 15th, and soon entering the green one. Plan not changed. Stop lowered even more to lock more profits in case of early reversal.

Will consider closing the short in the 4800 area if we lack momentum (quite likely), and let it ride down to 3700 if we have a lot of it (very unlikely)

Nota

Switched my focus to altcoins

Nota

Sold 60% of the alts with between 7 and 12% profits (bitcoin currently at 6619$), letting the rest ride with stop loss.

Nota

Getting ready to short/sell again in the 6800-6900$ area

Nota

Securing the trade by cashing in on half the short at slightly below 6600 average (6620 - 6580 area)

Let's see if btc has some bulls.

Stop loss in place

Nota

Second profit taken around 6350. Rest left to get stopped or finish the bear run to our last target

Nota

Altcoins again :)

Nota

(almost) all altcoins in double digits profits (wake up already XRP!).

Congratulations

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

(XRP finally waking up! Just needed to ask...)

Near daily resistance of 6800 once again. So,

about the alts bought at my previous update, a substential partial profit has been taken. Rest left to ride or stopped at entry or until we reach the final btc target to be shorted once more

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

7400$ right now :

Sold most of the holdings from the july 14th buy (6200$)

Average profit ~35% in three days

Nota

Looking for short opportunity

Dagangan aktif

Short from 7600, stop loss in place, first profit taken at x30 leverage. Looking for lower

Nota

Stop loss got taken at entry after a first profit. Looking to re short in the 8000-8600 area after I finish playing the altcoin bounce. Doubting it will cross 8200$

Will buy back alts if it's a real breakout afterward

Nota

Strong resistance, careful

Nota

Short first take profit

Nota

More profit. It's also more overall bearish than april's run

Nota

More profit taken.
Will re enter the short higher
Trade according to plan

Nota

going for a dead cat bounce, and correction upward (pump) of altcoins

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Didn't expect it, but both the BTCUSD dump and ALTvsBTC pump happened at the same time,
BTC touched 6880, altcoin vs btc (on bitmex) pumped 15% so double big gains (despite a small loss on a btc long sclap)

I'll stop updating this analysis which is getting old and hopefully make a new one

When most were insanely bullish, we called the distribution zone to sell everything, once again (we called the 19k top, 12k double top and the 10k april bull trap)

Thank you.

Stay frosty

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

6350$

near -25% since distribution zone

Swing short closed by now at 100%. Will only daytrade it now, expecting some relief green candles to resume swing shorting, in probably a week

If not, I will swing buy the capitulation

Nidalas

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Nidalas

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