In this post, I will probably show you the most time-efficient way to maximize your gains in the BTC bull market.
As you can see graphs moved before, move today and will most probably move in the future in similar waves with strong pushes, followed by consolidation phases. If you want to maximize your profits you can sell the tops and buy the dips. There is a wonderful tool to help you with that!
Take some time to understand it and you probably won't be sorry.
Here are some tips:
1. The previous top can show you where approximately the next top will be! a) 310$ top in the previous bubble cycle shows you where the next (s)top will be - 1.618 Fibbo level is the one that becomes the real boundary on the next run (507$ blue line) - it might be smart to put sell orders around that level (you can read where exactly to put the order in the text bellow)
b) 5531$ top enabled similar projection in the bubble cycle we have started this year! - 1.619 Fibbo level shows 8949$ as top (we actually reached 9096 with spike) - there was a similar double top play as we had it before
c) The last wave top can also be projected from the previous top - 1.618 Fibbo from the local 2016 double top (467$) took us to 755$ projection (we actually reached 778 on a spike) - 1.618 Fibbo from the local 2019 double top (8.5k) took us to 14191$ projection (we actually reached 13880 on a spike)
2. Supports and resistances from before are the fine tunning tool you may want to use! a) As you can see there are always some supports around 1.6 Fibbo level from the previous price movement from the bubble pop. Using the closest one just bellow 1.6 Fibbo can be a smart way to go. b) Since the spikes are fast you may want to set automatic order in order to maximize your gains. c) Ex. in 2016 739$ sell order would work nicely if you were not greedy. Similarly in 2019 13790$ sell order would do the same and you would be selling the position nearly perfectly.
3. Buying the dip can be a bit more tricky! a) As you can see a spike down usually touches the previous high but doesn't stay there for a long time b) Counting on the touch might be tricky so it might be smarter to find the support line, where you already get a good price and accumulate BTC c) You can wait for support to get clear and buy the majority of stake on that level and maybe go for the best possible (minority) position with automatic buy order close to the previous top (falling knife spike down)
With this strategy, you use the least amount of time and you will most probably beat 90% of traders and also the hodlers.
Hope this helps and we all know it's not financial advice. It's just an idea. ;-)
I have a question regarding the fibs and BTC and please excuse if I missed the point. But I heard that the 138 % level is supposed to be the most reliable reversal indicator of the fibs and that the 161% level is more likely to see a bounce from. I could be wrong though, would appreciate your opinion about it.
@heish, what you are a demonstration in this graph is a delusion of market players that did not know what to do when BTC reached a previous high of $1150 (check 2014 bubble price). That's why in this case 1.38 probably worked, but generally from my experience 1.61 is really accurate. If you check other hype tops 1.6 fits much better. I might show that in some of the future posts.
@Samoto, that would be great thanks. Is the data from the past 10 years enough? Just curious...
Samoto
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@heish, you only have data from 10years on BTC. It's not older than that. ;-)
heish
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@Samoto, haha thanks for clearing me up Mrr Samoto Nakatoshi :P
The_Real_AMF
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Great info. Thanks for the break down. Is it just me or are the fibs in the left chart blurry? Just trying to orient myself for which impulses you chose and 0 and 1 for the fib. Thanks again!
Seems TW publish is cutting the edges so it doesn't come out the same as I see it. Haven't done too much public posting here, but I should get used to it soon.
I have a question regarding the fibs and BTC and please excuse if I missed the point. But I heard that the 138 % level is supposed to be the most reliable reversal indicator of the fibs and that the 161% level is more likely to see a bounce from. I could be wrong though, would appreciate your opinion about it.
Cheers!