BTCUSD: The market move that should break the bears back

10 Feb

There are still a lot of opinion makers that promote the idea that this rally over the last year is just a bear market counter rally to the 2022 decline from the ATH in 2021. Their Elliott wave counts erroneously label the last year as an ABC, with the C wave concluding any time now. Any time now has been stretched and stretched, and …. and so forth. The 48 k line or the 0.618 retracement Fib was supposed to catapult the price down, only to top at around 49000. That would have been ok, actually, these lines are not steel barriers. When the market declined to 38.5 k in January, it was supposed to keep going to 35, 32, even 20 k and below. Of course that never materialized, as the market swiftly turned around toward the market top. But the bears kept roaring.

The market now appears at the crucial limit where they should shut up, IF the market can consolidate above its present top, on top of the psychological level of 50000 dollars.

The rally from 38.5 k has reached the stage of possibly breaking that line.

This chart shows a forecast for the last fifth wave to be completed in this rally.

The green wave has two targets, either the 100% extension of wave three to $53000, or just the 61.8% level, where the major channel top trend line intersects. This trend line essentially contained the price in January.

Background discussion and larger context of this chart and the Elliott wave count can be found in my other topics.

10 Feb

Nota

Here is a look at the top of the market in 15m bars.
It’s clear the price action has started its vertical ascend, after a fairly shallow correction (23.6%) in fourth wave Subminuette degree, and a first and a second wave in degree Micro. The local high of wave iii is still about 600 points away.

11 Feb

Nota

According to anticipation and established trend, the market has corrected yesterday’s rally in a fourth wave, and advanced to new local highs. There was some resistance in eclipsing yesterdays top, visible in a deeper than typical minor wave, but the PA finally broke through and is now appriaching the January high, being only about 400 points away at time of writing.

11 Feb

Nota

All of this requires patience. Meanwhile bitcoin has been establishing a support base on top of the 48000 line, with a 500 point height. This looks like a wave two in Micro degree. If confirmed, the third wave should bring another powerful advance.

12 Feb

Nota

The market has finally emerged from the congestion in wave two, and brought confirmation of our assessment.

12 Feb

Nota

The market has always more patience than either side of the market.
What appeared as a wave two, turned out as just an X-wave to extend the consolidation in a combination wave. The market needed more trading volume than is available on the weekend.
This morning the buyers have been in full force.

A new 52-week high on the bitcoin index chart over 49000.

12 Feb

Nota

The wave two correction, while looking pretty messy on first glance, is a clean double combination of a WXY and an ABC, connected with a high X-wave that distinctly divided the correction in two parts, the first of which I had shown previously.

This mornings spike was an impressive third wave that released the energy compressed over the weekend. This wave is not complete, and could easily penetrate the 50000 mark. Carpe diem.

12 Feb

Nota

The correction of the weekend was a wave 2 in degree Micro, so the current wave is wave Micro 3. By Fib extensions, we can estimate that it might end at about 50.5 k, provided by the 1.618 multiple. That is pretty much a minimum length. The 2.618 extension is 52000.

12 Feb

Nota

$50,000 has been breached.

It looks like this wave might come in at about 51.5 k.

12 Feb

Nota

At about 50.9 k we have the long-term upper trend line of the trading channel intersecting. This has stopped the advance for the January high.
There is the possibility of rejection there.

12 Feb

Nota

A nice fourth wave triangle correction. Should give the market a good platform to launch the next leg.

13 Feb

Nota

The market got indeed rejected at the upper trend line of the trading channel. It printed a new high of about 50.4 k, advancing only to a point between the 1.414 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension of wave one in Micro degree.

Coming out of the fourth Submicro wave triangle, featured in the preceding chart, the market formed a significant diagonal wave leading to the new two-year high. This being the concluding fifth wave in Submicro degree, it had to be an ending diagonal indicating the coming correction that we finally witnessed overnight. The market traded down to about 48.4 k so far, and may have been limited by the support from the top of wave Micro ((1)). There was a little bit of overlap though, which strict Elliott wavers don’t like to see. There is strong support in this area more generally.

13 Feb

Nota

Here is the updated chart.



We will have to see whether wave 5 (Micro) can break the trend line right away, but we should be cautious, There is room for a new high, but the power of this line is established, and we might have to endure the patience of the market a bit, and wait for the next larger wave generation to pick up here.

13 Feb

Nota

In terms of larger degree waves, the next leg up in Micro ((5)) will also conclude Subminuette degree wave v (Roman five), and Minuette degree wave (v). This confluence of ending waves will mark wave one in Minute degree, which started at $38.5 k, also the beginning of Minor wave three.
Of course, that means that the next wave up, from today or so, is the last in the current run. It does not end the major bull market. But we know that it will be followed by a correction in wave Minute two. The depth of this is uncertain, but we know the possible range, down to 38.5 k, for the maximal retracement of 100%. A more typical value would be 61.8%, 50%, or 38.2%.

No matter the exact depth, we know that the market is trading in a third wave up, and it is just in the starting phase of it.

14 Feb

Nota

Ok. Exceeding the 48,000 line, breaking the 0.618 retrace mark, even breaking 50,000 dollars, did not quiet the bears, although these are marks having been pushed ever since it became clear that this was a bull market. It’s clear that no technical or fundamental reasonings are the motivating driver for the bears’ attitude. Some people are just differently wired.

So let’s give them something to lick their chops: A CORRECTION❣️

Examining the chart again, I find that I made a likely error in assignment at the top of the market. I had marked a triangle correction with a B-wave higher than the previous top. While this is permissible, it turns out that a much better solution exists and which allows us to close out all waves at the new two-year high.
I had observed above that the abc wave from the high, which I had assumed to be a fourth wave, was overlapping with its wave one. It is now clear, that I should have been warned, and taken that more seriously, as an indication that the count was wrong.
In addition, the structures that evolved after the abc drop are not suitable for a bullish count.

The new chart follows:

14 Feb

Nota

This is the position of the market in the daily chart, without much clutter.
The depth of this correction is uncertain until it happens, but it cannot go below 38.5 k$, and most second wave corrections don’t go beyond 62%. As of writing the market is still hanging in the upper 49000s, havingbretraced the earlier drop by more than 62%.

14 Feb

Nota

Wow. That was a short correction.
This is the wave we needed for this topic.
It’s Valentine’s Day.

14 Feb

Nota

14 Feb

Nota

This impulse seems to be the real deal, not just a blow-off top like the January high. It went past the trend channel which has proven to be turned into support now. In a five-wave sequence, bitcoin is completed ping wave five of the large impulse, and made it past the 52000 mark.

There is chart resistance from 2021 at 52.1 k, just ahead, which has limited the fifth wave so far.

Overhead, the next chart resistances are sparse: 59.2 k and 69.0 k. The sky is the limit, almost.

14 Feb

Nota

Based on the spike this morning, which is wave one in Minute. degree, its third wave might end at 73974, the 1.618 extension, or the 1.414 at 70.0 k. both seem like good targets before the halving.

15 Feb

Nota

One side note, I see that so many are still hoping for the elusive crash, and are twisting their pencils to draw up some art on the chart to rationalize that.
Right now the market is hanging above the abyss, and they like to slide off.
But it is seen that it is just a minor correction in a second wave, from which the next impulse will emerge in wave three.

18 Feb

Nota

I still see a lot of posts with deep corrections suggested, “ANY TIME NOW”. This isn’t going to happen. The market is headed to break the ATH, and beyond. I think we will see 100k by halving time. The stock-to-flow model suggests this as well, At halving time the price tends toward the S2F value, which is about 110k.

This market needs to move forward. It is time. We had a needed correction for a few days and that should be enough.
To get to 100k by time of halving, the market needs to conquer a few resistances before price discovery.
The structural resistances from historical price action center around the 59000 mark, and the all-time high at or before 69000.
The market just took out the top trend line of its trading channel from November 2021, but it has not crossed the 23.6% Fibonacci trend line yet. It is parallel to the channel, just a few dollars above the channel, and is really the stronger line that has defined the upper bound. The recent market high, was in fact limited by this line, clearly. The line is now at about 53200. The next line up, the 38.2% is around 72000, also a good goal for the near future.