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"I can see clearly now, the rain is gone". W bottom for Bitcoin

In my previous analysis i gave the answer to what Bitcoin was doing the last week or 2. I said that we were in an accumulation phase around the 6500/6800. I caught the previous low (the bear trap) when i went long with an average price of 6460 thinking we would go higher, but after a few days we dropped again quite fast to the lows and have retested them so far. I closed half my position at 7330 and the rest got stopped out at 6850. Made a few small trades in between.

Yesterday i went long again at 6600 and said i would add until 6500 with a stop close below it. Even said we would probably see a false breakout before choosing the direction! Exactly that happened when we made that fast drop to 6500 and went up to 6600 just as fast.
I gave a clue to why i thought i knew what was happening in my previous analysis but i said i would not give away all my secrets. Already did that more than enough.

I still have this position and won't be closing it soon. I really think we can see some higher prices now in the 8K levels. Maybe even higher, but that depends on how strong this rally will be. The formation i am seeing here is a double bottom. That big black line will probably be the resistance line of this formation. The purple line i drew there, is just a possible scenario, doesn't mean it will follow it exactly so don't stare blindly at it please.

My early followers know i am a big bear about this market for a long time now and nothing has changed yet! Only if we would see a break of the 9200 and 10K i would start to change my mind a bit. So i am riding this wave up and will try to build up a very big short position IF we reach the 8K levels. My followers know i can easily change my mind about this trade any second, but until know it's just a clear lift off for me. Biggest challenge for now will the 7200ish level. I think if we can push through the 7100/7200 we could easily see a fast jump towards the 7400/7500. Around the 7200/7500 i will probably start to close a % of my position to reduce risk and take some profit. I did it last week and since we dropped from the 7500 it was a very good decision. Never get to greedy!! Ideally we will see a bigger bull flag below the 7500/7400 so people will think the resistance is to big.

Alts are showing small break out's, showing solid bottom formations so i think momentum will start to go in favor of the bull coming week. But always be very aware of false breakouts, they have happened countless times the last few months. This market has been showing extreme weakness the last month, don't forget that!

And please don't forget to like this idea if you think i deserve it :)

My previous analysis. Read it (and others if you want to learn something, including the many updates. Good luck :)

Everyone is confused, i THINK i go the answer to this puzzle :)

Nota

Still a bull flag in the making, i rather not see price fall below the green area. If it manages to stay above it, would be a very strong sign. A retest of that inverse H&S around the blue line is also a healthy correction but would decrease the chance of a short squeeze

Nota

Still in side the flag, boring the hell out of us :)
It's difficult to tell what's happening, i see big sell orders coming up around 7000 and getting bought with some big buy orders of 50 to 100 BTC (which i have not seen in a while). But these sell orders kept coming again. But i can't put my finger on it yet what i could mean.
Just going to leave it and ignore it, been thinking to much already lately :)

I would like to see this flag break upwards within the hour

Nota

Major break out alert!! Rally from 6970 to 6995 broke the big resistance line :)

Keep the likes coming guys, you have almost put me in the nr 1 spot again :) Thanks

Nota

I think people will leave crypto not because it's been dropping so much, but because it's just to boring, still inside the flag

Nota

Taking quite long now, bullish momentum is loosing some strength. We could be seeing a small drop to the neckline of that H&S, but i really don't want price to fall below the 8800.
I have moved my stop to my entry level, i am risking my profit because i don't want to be shaken out this time if price should fall even more.

Nota

Now we want to see a bounce soon of about 100 points, showing there are buyers waiting. If we keep going sideways mostly and means it's weakening and could keep on dropping. Don't need to break the highs in one pump, but need to see buyers, buying that neckline

Nota

Now it's clear it was a distribution what i mentioned a few hours earlier

Nota

Now we don't want to see something like happening now. If the 8800 breaks we could get in to some trouble

Nota

I was just reading this, could have some affect unfortunately
cointelegraph.com/news/unconfirmed-polish-prosecutors-seize-400-mln-amid-allegations-bitfinex-is-implicated-in-fraud

Nota

We had some sign of life trying to buy it up again. No volume or so, but that should kick in again if we make another attempt at the 7000. Good luck trading. I am calling it a day

Nota

And thanks for the like guys, putting me on the nr 1 authors spot again. Keep m coming :)

Nota

Purple line has the biggest chance now

Nota

Volume picture is actually not looking so good. Anything above 6800 is still good, below could mean some trouble. Would be best to stay above 6880

Nota

Looks like the h&s is of the table guys, this is a good sign. Got turned into a bull flag now. But even if we break the 7050, I do want to see some volume increase.

Nota

Here we can see that picture again, the possible H&S we did have at the 7500 few days ago. Here we can see it broke out that pattern, not out of the woods yet of course. A break of 7050 should confirm it. Volume is slowly picking up now but want to see a bigger increase if we break the 7050/7150.
Don't forget to like guys, i am out for half a day, will try to keep you posted with my mobile if something big happens. Good luck

Nota

If we see a small acceleration soon, it will have followed my purple line of the failed h&s perfectly

Nota

My alt analysis are starting to show some nice profits now. In general alts are showing some bullish signs now. Want to see bullish momentum overall on crypto, if so this move up could take more than just 2 days

Nota

It's still following my primary chart of my previous analysis. The circle is not exact science, but we should see a move up soon, otherwise it could drop out. Doesn't mean we will start to drop big, but could mean it will make a higher low somewhere and that short term bullish momentum is dropping.

Nota

Still going according the primary chart. Resistance of that big triangle. The pattern where some people see an h&s and I see a descending triangle. Could break both ways. As long as we stay close to the resistance, chances increase it will break. So we don’t want to drop to much

Nota

Probably going to see some real direction when Asia wakes up. For now it seems to be in a bear flag, if we drop below the 6940 we could be headed towards the 9800 again. While i was writhing this, i was watching the price action on Bitfinex and saw the two 2000 BTC sell orders and the one 1000 BTC sell order within $20 from each other. Don't get fooled by these games guys, i missed when it disappeared again and looked up the order history, seems some one with some balls bought 95 BTC into it and probably like some little b.... they canceled the orders again. I know exactly what they are doing here, could mean we even drop towards the lows again around 6500, but i doubt that

Nota

9800 is 6800

Nota

So we saw some huge buying at Bitfinex around the 7000, it's just games being played trying to confuse bulls and bears. It works all the time because it's just very difficult to know what their play is there, why they are doing it. I have cracked these games several times (after being fooled several times :)).

Anyway, price has to push through now, i don't want to see price dropping below that support line. I will close half my position if we drop below that red area around 6900/6950. Just to lock in some profit of my trade from the 65xx and to reduce risk. We are still inside that big triangle, no real break out yet. So chances increase slightly that we could be looking up the support line again. I am still expecting higher prices and nothing has changed so far. But i do want to see volume kicking in, probably will when we break the triangle and the 7100/7200.

Nota

Here we can see price broke out of that high bullish momentum circle. Does not mean we will drop, but bullish momentum and speed has dropped. I don't want to see another drop below 6900/6950 before making another high above 7100

Nota

Now we see a 1000 BTC buy wall and before a 450 BTC buy wall. Just games being played, unless you understand what they are doing :), just ignore it because it's only confusing than.

It's fighting the 7100/7150 resistance now. Things are looking better now, i do want to see some follow through now. As you can see below in the chart, it should stay above that blue line to keep bullish momentum high.

Nota

This chart
Don't forget to like guys

Nota

Bitfinex is clearly trying to push higher, but other exchanges are not supporting the move up yet, so we should see an accelerated move soon, but could be both ways. I say up :)

Nota

If we would move above the 7100 ish, it would be a first confirmation that we broke that big blue triangle you see in my primary chart. So far following the line that i drew quite nicely :)

Nota

There is a real fight going on now, have not seen this volume in a very long time. These big sell and buy orders, and buy and sell walls

Nota

Those 2000 BTC sell walls just keep on coming, after being bought they still produce new ones, just pocket change :)

Nota

Now i see 6 sell walls of each 1000 BTC within $6 from each other

Nota

Volume is kicking in now at Bitfinex. If bulls manage to push through this resistance line it could make a squeeze towards the 7300 (H&S target). Still following the line i drew quite perfectly :)
I think i deserve more like so far it has been perfect. I am calling it a day, i will post a new update tomorrow and maybe a new analysis if like get above 800 :) Squeeze it above 800 LOL :)

Nota

Still trying to push through, but looks like it made a wedge in the process. Doesn't mean we will drop back to 7000, but even if it does that, still no problem as long as it stay inside that channel

Nota

Want to see it stay above that circled line, but even if we drop out it's still okay. In extreme bullish scenario, prices breaks the wedge through the upside.

Nota

Target reached, let's see if price can go up from around here, or will drop to the support line. I rather want it to go up from here, showing the lows getting higher slowly and following the pattern of that circled line

Nota

I closed out half

Nota

That was quite unexpected the drop to the low of the channel okay, but a big dump like this? Anyone got a news fact?

Nota

Big chance this big drop could have some follow through. If it was a big news fact, than it's very likely 80% chance, otherwise it could be a shakeout

Nota

I closed out half at 6950, now it's to early to start adding again, because price needs to get stable first otherwise it's just a gamble. Usually after a big drop like this the price needs to find support before buyers dare to get in again. Ideally we stay above the 6700/6650 and stay here for a few hours to create a higher low. If price would drop to the 6500 again, than it's 80% sure we keep on dropping. So we need to see a higher low here. I am keeping the remaining of my long position from 6560 with a stop around my entry level.

Usually a correction on a wave is always fast, but not like this! It's bothering me that it dropped this fast and so much. Price looked quite stable until now, but the highs were only getting slightly higher. I know this is a weak signal, but my assumption was still that the 7100/7200 area was a big resistance and we just had to show patience.

Nota

If price stays above this green area, it could mean buyers are entering, but than they have to push it above the 6800 again to fight this bear flag

Nota

Slight chance price is stabilizing here. I have decided to move my stop to that red area around 6680

Nota

needs to get above 6800 soon, otherwise we will start dropping again

Nota

I have just added at 6730, but these together with the 6560 position with a stop around 6550 to make it a break even trade, next to the winning trade i sold at 6950. For me it's worth the risk, but it's easier because i still have profit. It's a risky trade!!

Nota

It's slipping away, closed again at 6705. Will leave my remaining from 6560 with a stop at the entry again

Nota

Mean the remaining position stop at 6650. See i said it wrong in an earlier update, 6550 should be 6650 :) sorry about that

Nota

Okay guys, i am out. So i still have that original position with a stop at 6650!

Will try to post a new analysis later today. For now it's just tricky. If your not already in with a position, it's best to stay out and wait. Good luck trading :)

Nota

Hello guys, up till now I have answered everyone who sent me a private message. But from some of you the message is empty. That’s the reason why I did not respond

Nota

If one of you knows what the exact facts of the tax pressure in the US, could you please pm me or just post it here in the comment section. How much it is but even more how it’s calculated. I am quite qurious what the pressure really is

Nota

I just went long at 6715, very small position!!!! feel like making a gamble now on my gut feeling, so i don't recommend you follow this trade :) LOL

Nota

Moved my stop to 6660, weakening to much now and giving away most of the short term bullish momentum. Should have pushed through, so probably means it was mostly shorts closing and no real buying

Nota

Looks like a repeat of few days ago. The wedge i posted a few hours back reached it's target and bounced a bit since than. We have a range now it seems which between 6600 and 6800.We will probably see a break later today, maybe even much sooner. I have traded that wedge and took some points there again and than waited for a small bounce to see some buyers and got back in at 6710 again with a long position. Still a very small position like yesterday, of which i told better not to follow me on this one :)

Nota

I will try and post a new analysis today

Nota

If we manage to stay above the 6700 i think we can see a small breakout later. No real fundament, but looks like the market has cooled down from that big drop yesterday and slowly wants to turn up again.

I am just getting to many mixed signals still. This bear flag has become to big to be very reliable, it does showing some signs that it is making a bearish wedge right now. But the bigger picture shows a higher high and of course my own way of looking at the market still says we have to go up from here. But the US tax on crypto issue just keeps spinning in my mind. Because this market is just so small, even a couple of hundred million can put a lot of pressure on this market.
Month ago the Mt. Gox trustee was blamed for crashing the whole market since the ATH, with only 400 million worth of BTC. Than how much pressure should this give the market than.

I have been telling for months than BTC is going down on the long term and that view has not changed at all. Because this market has been damaged way to much and unless some real fundamental things start to change, i will change my view as well.

However, as i have been telling many times before, the market moves in waves and i just still think we have to make another move up before we break the 6K again. If this US tax issue was not playing a role, i would go long without a doubt and maybe even a bigger position to take profit in the 7K levels and to leave some for the 8K levels. But the selling pressure just continues and i just can't tell if it's a natural move (normal buyers and sellers choosing direction) or that many people are forced to sell now.

TA translates a combination of many factors into a chart. But exceptional things, like the Mt. Gox selling and now the US taxes (assuming people will sell crypto to pay them) are not part of a natural process. Eventually they DO become part of it, because when people know the facts they become a part of the trading decisions they make.

I can keep on going but it just gets to complicated so i am going to leave it with this. Best advice i can give now, is just don't trade between 6500/7200.

I am still long since this morning at 6710 after making a small short trade on a wedge BTC made. It's a very small position because i know the risks are very high. I have put the stop just below the 6500 and my target? I don't know yet, i will determine that IF we break upwards. For now we in a range between 6600/6800 and hopefully we will get a break out (up or down) when the US traders wake up in an hour or 2.

I will post this in a new analysis, so save your comments on this for the new Idea i will post

Nota

New Idea posted

Fake break out up or fake break out back in again

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