BTCUSD - Potential Scenarios

Technical Analysis Overview

Key Patterns:
The Cup and Handle pattern identified in the past has already been played out, signifying the completion of a bullish breakout phase. This historical pattern adds context to the long-term bullish sentiment and the continuation of the uptrend.

We could potentially retest all-time highs before heading lower.

Confluence Zone and Support Areas:
Multi-confluence zone for a good loading zone (around $65,000 - $73,000):

This is highlighted as a critical entry area for potential long trades. This zone combines:
Historical resistance turned into support.

Marked as a major psychological and technical support. This area could serve as a robust accumulation zone for long-term investors if Bitcoin retraces.

If strong bullish price action fails to emerge at this key zone, the price could potentially move down toward the 40k level.

Long-term targets: $150,000 - $165,000, indicating significant bullish potential. (we could reach this around mid 2025 if stay in a bullish market sentiment.)

Volume Trends:
Noticeable volume increases are observed near critical levels, supporting the significance of the multi-confluence zone. Higher volume during breakouts adds to the bullish case.
Macro Factors (Inauguration of Trump - Jan 20, 2025):

A speculative note suggests potential macroeconomic influence on crypto markets, such as regulatory clarity or adoption promises from political leadership. However, this remains an external factor, not directly affecting the technical framework.

Bullish Scenario:
Holding Above $65,000 - $73,000: If Bitcoin maintains support within this multi-confluence zone, it could serve as a launchpad for the next bullish leg.

Breaking ATH's at $108,000: A clean breakout above this level would validate the Fibonacci extension targets of $150,000 and beyond, indicating a continued bullish rally.

Bearish Scenario:
Breakdown Below $40,000: A sustained breakdown below this psychological level would invalidate the current bullish structure, potentially leading to deeper corrections and prolonged consolidation.

Conclusion:
The chart presents a long-term bullish outlook, supported by historical patterns, strong technical confluence zones, and potential macroeconomic tailwinds. Traders and investors should watch the multi-confluence zone closely for signs of accumulation and monitor volume dynamics to confirm the trend continuation.

Trading Advisory:
Exercise caution and consider market conditions and your own risk tolerance when trading. It's advisable to conduct comprehensive research or consult with a financial advisor before engaging in trading activities.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

Do not rely too much on my time horizone on the chart.