This might actually be the current scenario
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As I've said before, the wave patterns are not obvious in this bear cycle. However looking at the bigger picture, one could see that there is a plausible 3-3-3 repeating pattern in all time frames. So this could be modeled by two successive WXY patterns. The only thing that's obvious is that the bear flags created by these patterns have the right target every time. Therefore, I may speculate that the wave we're in is a smaller wxy subwave structure that just created a new bear flag (cause now we seem to make the y sub-subwave). If I'm right, the target of this flag is $5300-5380. Notice that the target of the bigger flag formed by the last bigger XY subwaves would be the same!
But take care, FOMO might build up and make us fall lower (I don't think we could go lower than the blue uptrend line tho). But if it will happen, then this is a 12345 pattern that could send us below $5000, even crash.
For now however, the stochastic RSI on the daily chart should reach the bottom (about -3.5 in value) and reverse to bullish, CCI reach a value below -200 and RSI below 30; this would be in about 1 day or two, an signal a daily chart minimum folowed by at least a weak bullish cycle. Look for signals on the 2h chart where a minor bullish cycle should start now; the daily minimum I suppose will happen at the next minor bullish cycle.
But take care, FOMO might build up and make us fall lower (I don't think we could go lower than the blue uptrend line tho). But if it will happen, then this is a 12345 pattern that could send us below $5000, even crash.
For now however, the stochastic RSI on the daily chart should reach the bottom (about -3.5 in value) and reverse to bullish, CCI reach a value below -200 and RSI below 30; this would be in about 1 day or two, an signal a daily chart minimum folowed by at least a weak bullish cycle. Look for signals on the 2h chart where a minor bullish cycle should start now; the daily minimum I suppose will happen at the next minor bullish cycle.
Nota
Look at the circles on the 2h chart, they seem to tell the same story. Now the first minor bullish cycle of the y minor subwave has started (minimum on CCI, RSI and stoch RSI, and bullish cross on the stoch RSI). Let's see how many minor bullish cycles we're going to have. IF there will be five of them, the 3-3-3 pattern will be broken and we might expect a 12345 minor subwave; that would say one more drop is coming after the flag target! But I'm saying IF, not that it's sure.Nota
There was a series of shorts liquidations that pumped the price up with pretty much volume, invalidating the small flag. However we were stopped by the red circle that we just crossed, so the big flag is still in play. But we might go sideways for a while until ending the minor bullish cycle. Things should get more clear tomorrow.Nota
We've started a minor bearish cycle after the minor bullish cycle. On the 2h chart it seems to get to an end, together with a bullish divergence on the commodity channel index. Since CCI still looks on the bullish side, I think we will soon start another minor bullish cycle until we touch the top of the downtrend channel and descending triangle on the dashed black line (that would be $6400-6500). We should head down afterwards.Nota
Bitcoin seems to like the diagonals recently; this is how I think this new minor bullish cycle will conclude:Nota
It is not impossible to continue downtrend after being rejected by the dotted blue trendline; stochastic RSI may sometimes give false reversal signal and continue on the bottom with both moving averages tangled. This is why other confirmations are useful. RSI and CCI still have plenty of way to go down. We are in kinda 50% chances, this is normally a no-trade region. The only slightly bullish signs are that we are in the upper half of the downtrend channel and stochastic RSI is largely oversold (which may go down until RSI is oversold too). Otherwise the flags are still pointing down to the same target that I've stated on the daily chart.Nota
My last update warning happened; the outer purple circle pushed us down, breaking the support circle. The diagonal sub-scenario is invalidated, unless if it's a bear trap; bears are more in control than it seemed. RSI still has room to go down. I think the $6006 red support line will not hold. Let's see if we break one or two more support circles; several small retracements are still posible in the way down.Nota
So far we are slowly going downwards, following more or less the dotted blue downtrend line (which might not be perfectly traced here). Some of the old circles lost their effect, new circles are now in play. If this movement will continue for longer time, we might break the trend and retrace up, but I doubt we will also break the top of the downtrend channel (dotted black line). But well, it's crypto, anything can happen. However the most likely scenario is another drop followed by a small retrace; the overall lookout seems still bearish.Nota
Yesterday we've had a pump trying to push us through the $6410 resistance.It happened in a moment when stochastic RSI was in the overbought range and had a bearish cross (false signal). However this condition was almost confirmed by CCI (which was in the negative range) but wasn't confirmed by the RSI which was nearing the oversold range, so fairly talking it wasn't a sell signal; only not bullish.Now we have RSI in the overbought zone (which should be a "sell" signal), soon to be confirmed by CCI (climbing to the positive range above the stable trend zone), but invalidated by the stochastic RSI which is in the oversold range crssing bullish.
So, I've traced the new circles; might not be entirely correct because the support circle can equally be the 0.238 red circle or the 0.736 blue circle (the patterns fit well in both). But no matter what, I expect a new bullish push because of the stoch RSI, but no so high (I don't think it can climb above $6500-6600) because of the overbought RSI. This will generate such a bear pressure that I think we are going to drop hard after. The big bear flag is not going to be invalidated. But let's wait and see, bitcoin can be full of surprises.
Nota
We actually went sideways, just slightly lower, enough for the CCI to reset to the downside where it had a minimum. Stochastic RSI is now largely oversold and tangled to bearish. RSI is now in the normal bullish range, so bullish retracement should come soon. I doubt we can go much lower before the bullish cycle start, however as I said in the previous update, the bullish cycle shouldn't go very high; we're still in a range mode, just not yet decided between the bullish and the bearish channel.Nota
On the daily chart it looks now like we have to go down in fact! We've had a bearish harami and continued downtrend, in spite of the oversold stoch RSI on the 2h chart!And as daily, stoch RSI actually looks like overbought and about to make a bearish cross, and the other indicators have all the conditions to go down on all time frames. I think in order to claim a bullish trend we now need that RSI and stoch RSI make a bottom on the daily chart; only then the 2h chart signals can be taken into account. Hard to tell how deep we should go, the big flag target is still $5200 but I am not sure we can exit the range mode and do that right now.
Nota
Boom! another pump, shorts got liquidated! However bearish cycle should be about to start on the daily chart, so don't get too excited. First of all, we are below a resistance level ($6650) that didn't act as if it's about to break. Second, we're still in a bearish convergence (or if you want, hidden bearish divergence) on the daily chart, which is not going to break as long as we don't go above $6800, and even so it will still be there on a larger time frame. And third, bear cycle should start soon even on the 2h chart. So it's not the moment to buy as long as we don't retrace down, and even so, we must make sure we keep doing higher lows; so far we've only done it once on the 2h chart. And keep in mind that bear cycles on the daily chart have been quite deep recently.Nota
Hard to make a TA in this moment. We're in two possible scenarios, and betting for any of them is just gambling.The bullish case is that we're in the 5th wave of a 12345 uptrend. This wave would have retraced from 0.382 fib level of wave 3, overlapping wave 1, so should be diagonal. The 2h chart stochastic RSI has just started a new minor bullish cycle, so it's possible. However, as diagonal, it should retrace at $6700-ish, so taking profit should be the best thing soon.
The bearish case is suggested by a bear cycle started on the daily chart stoch RSI, combined with hidden bearish divergence in the last days on CMF and RSI, and bearish harami daily candlestick pattern formed yesterday. On the 2h chart, this should mean this wave is wave 2 of a 12345 minor downward impulse; only a correction. If so, we are headed lower and stop losses should begin to fall later this week.
Therefore I should think no leverage and securing profits is the best option for now, cause in any case we should have to go lower eventually.
Nota
OK, the bullish case won. On the daily chart, a bullish engulfment seems to form after the bearish harami. However stochastic RSI wants to go down so bear cycle should start; bearish divergence on all indicators. Soon the stoch RSI will reach the top on the 2h chart too, and I suppose we will also have divergence there. I think the diagonal pattern is about to end, sooner that I thought; I doubt we can go above $6800 even after this pump. Nota
No bullish engulfment at last, we came back below the $6650 resistance.Update is here:
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