BTCUSD - Outlook for 2016 -17 with 4 possibilities

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
NOTE: Please keep in mind that just because I have drawn particular line or suggested a target does not mean I will cause the price to follow that path. I say this because many appear to have religious like zeal for BTCUSD to move forever upwards without any retracement where suggesting anything else is a gross sin.
Also I am ignoring all the positive and negative new developments and accept that I don't really know nor understand any of this.

Analysis -
Due to limited availability of price history longer term EW counts are near impossible. Therefore, it is possible as I have explained in previous charts publication we could assume Nov 2013 top as lager wave . If this is correct then we could have:
1. Jan 2015 low as possible wave and that we have started a possible expanding ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction which could see retest of 2013 high or make marginal new high to complete the larger cycle of 5 waves (please see chart below for details).
2. as per No1. but that we are forming a contracting triangle since Nov 2013 high as wave as shown in the chart which means we could continue to chop about in tighter range till we complete this before breaking to upside to retest the Nov 2013 high or make marginal new high.

OR Possibly that we have November 2013 High as major top of 5 wave cycle
3. Then what we are seeing since is retracement of the entire cycle. Under this scenario we have Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low as 1st zigzag . Since when we have made a corrective zigzag to the upside with spike high in Nov 2015. If this proves to be correct then we could see another larger zigzag to the downside as illustrated on that chart. Based on AB-CD patter where we consider percentage drop from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low and apply this from Nov 2015 spike high we get possible downside target of in the proximity of 65 which incidentally is also an area of wave 4 of one degree lower cycle often the area for retracement based on EW principle.
4. As per 3 above but with Nov 2015 spike high as being 1st part of the zigzag retracement to the upside where we could drop to 250 area and make another zigzag with upside target around 650 area as shown in the P&F chart below. Once the upside retracement is complete we could then drop in second zigzag at least to Jan 2015 low or make new low towards 65 zone.

It is interesting that Nov 2013, 2014 proved to be spike highs of the cycle. Could Nov 2015 also be the spike high of the cycle and that we now continue lower as per 3 above? Time will tell. Once we have some clarity, I will republish chart accordingly.

Conclusion: Due to the length of time for correction and lack of bullish counts to the upside, I am leaning on scenarios 3 or 4.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

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UPDATE: I have not looked at this correlation chart of LTCUSD and BTCUSD for sometime. However, but upon seeing someone posting LTC chart to suggest that the BTCUSD is primed to breakout to the upside from current congestion so I thought I should check. I could be completely wrong in my on observation, but noticed that there was major bearish divergence between them. Also it seems that LTC was leading the move from the low of 2015. That suggest that we could see early breakdown/ or Breakout of this in LTC 1st. But keeping in mid the divergence, it is more likely to be to the downside.
Here is the updated chart.
Just to highlight one possibility that has been opened since early 2015 which I covered in my Youtube video in early 2015 as a possibility (rather a long video) but I am becoming more and more open to it. That is since BTCUSD's earliest price data available, it might have completed a wave cycle at Nov 2013 high. In this scenario, it would likley take several years to retest ATH and could continue sideways chop or meander to the downside for lot longer than many might be willing to consider possible.

Besides the possible wave counts, what you have to wonder is, that so many are relying on weekly MACD and either reading is as bullish development or wishing it will be more accurately. However, this is a second time MACD is crossing its signal line to the downside on this weekly time frame, so where might it lead to?

Because if we have this scenario and MACD develops bearish momentum then you will be left speechless whilst considering the implication. Here is the chart:

+2 Balas
@DanV this pretty much is in line with my projection on future price too... The possible factors for aggressive downside pull:
- Like it or not bitcoin is directly dependent on health of our economy, in good times it rises due to appetite for risk but in bad economic times it loses its appeal
- Much anticipated pre-halving hype dies down and a lot of bagholders are disappointed while exiting
- Most of the overinvested and overleveraged bitcoin startups throwing in their towels and dumping their unicorn dreams
- Security issues that will cotninue destabilizing whole blockchain
- Emergence of better cryptocurrency technologies
- Politics surrounding bitcoin
- Serious government crackdown or ban
+1 Balas
DanV blackswan
blackswan , thanks for sharing your views. Somehow I think that is very likely and logical reasons why we are less likely to see new bullish cycle developing. But emotions run high in Bitcoin community with overwhelming number anticipating or being hopeful of continued upside as the feel that this correction has gone on for far too long.

Bitcoin has short history and likewise many who trade it. They have probably not hears about Japanese Equity market which looked just like Bitcoin leading into 1990 when it topped. That correction could go on for a very long time. So will follow this price with great interest.
+1 Balas
mkliethe blackswan
This is what I believe will happen as well. Although, I believe in the end Bitcoin will be the one to pull through. It's still useful with a price <$10 and there are enough Bitlievers (hard core bitcoin believers) out there that at the very least it will be around for years to come for a possible rebound.
DanV mkliethe
Indeed, If Bitcoin survive, it could offer great opportunities to long this at the right stage. But in the meantime pain could be severe and over longer duration.

Thanks for your comments.
+2 Balas
I am very bullish long term. I am sure once we reach $10,000. its inevitable. It might be in 2016 or in 2020. I assume it could be in 2017 because market crash has already begun and it will make bottom in 2017. oil gold stocks everything collapsed.
DanV SunnyMorning
Appreciate your comments, thanks.
It is entirely possible. However, if is very uncertain right now as to whether the lasting low is in place or yet to come. If the damage done is not too great, then we could indeed have new bullish cycle, not sure about $10k though, but not impossible.

If the damage and other factors compound the situation then gradual drop and more sideways action to form foundation for next cycle could take much longer than many at present consider feasible.

So for now the priority should be in preserving capital by not over leveraging and acceptable stops to limit loss just in case the bullish momentum do not show up whilst not being too attached to the actual instrument.
The rise is due to the Chinese central bank issued a message caused.Do you think he can change the trend of the fall.
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