Also I am ignoring all the positive and negative new developments and accept that I don't really know nor understand any of this.
Due to limited availability of price history longer term EW counts are near impossible. Therefore, it is possible as I have explained in previous charts publication we could assume Nov 2013 top as lager wave . If this is correct then we could have:
1. Jan 2015 low as possible wave and that we have started a possible expanding of 3-3-3-3-3 construction which could see retest of 2013 high or make marginal new high to complete the larger cycle of 5 waves (please see chart below for details).
2. as per No1. but that we are forming a contracting triangle since Nov 2013 high as wave as shown in the chart which means we could continue to chop about in tighter range till we complete this before breaking to upside to retest the Nov 2013 high or make marginal new high.
OR Possibly that we have November 2013 High as major top of 5 wave cycle
3. Then what we are seeing since is retracement of the entire cycle. Under this scenario we have Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low as 1st . Since when we have made a corrective to the upside with spike high in Nov 2015. If this proves to be correct then we could see another larger to the downside as illustrated on that chart. Based on AB-CD patter where we consider percentage drop from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low and apply this from Nov 2015 spike high we get possible downside target of in the proximity of 65 which incidentally is also an area of wave 4 of one degree lower cycle often the area for retracement based on EW principle.
4. As per 3 above but with Nov 2015 spike high as being 1st part of the retracement to the upside where we could drop to 250 area and make another with upside target around 650 area as shown in the P&F chart below. Once the upside retracement is complete we could then drop in second at least to Jan 2015 low or make new low towards 65 zone.
It is interesting that Nov 2013, 2014 proved to be spike highs of the cycle. Could Nov 2015 also be the spike high of the cycle and that we now continue lower as per 3 above? Time will tell. Once we have some clarity, I will republish chart accordingly.
Conclusion: Due to the length of time for correction and lack of counts to the upside, I am leaning on scenarios 3 or 4.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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Here is the updated chart.
Besides the possible wave counts, what you have to wonder is, that so many are relying on weekly MACD and either reading is as bullish development or wishing it will be more accurately. However, this is a second time MACD is crossing its signal line to the downside on this weekly time frame, so where might it lead to?
Because if we have this scenario and MACD develops bearish momentum then you will be left speechless whilst considering the implication. Here is the chart:
- Like it or not bitcoin is directly dependent on health of our economy, in good times it rises due to appetite for risk but in bad economic times it loses its appeal
- Much anticipated pre-halving hype dies down and a lot of bagholders are disappointed while exiting
- Most of the overinvested and overleveraged bitcoin startups throwing in their towels and dumping their unicorn dreams
- Security issues that will cotninue destabilizing whole blockchain
- Emergence of better cryptocurrency technologies
- Politics surrounding bitcoin
- Serious government crackdown or ban
Bitcoin has short history and likewise many who trade it. They have probably not hears about Japanese Equity market which looked just like Bitcoin leading into 1990 when it topped. That correction could go on for a very long time. So will follow this price with great interest.
It is entirely possible. However, if is very uncertain right now as to whether the lasting low is in place or yet to come. If the damage done is not too great, then we could indeed have new bullish cycle, not sure about $10k though, but not impossible.
If the damage and other factors compound the situation then gradual drop and more sideways action to form foundation for next cycle could take much longer than many at present consider feasible.
So for now the priority should be in preserving capital by not over leveraging and acceptable stops to limit loss just in case the bullish momentum do not show up whilst not being too attached to the actual instrument.