When I first looked at this breakout on the 4-hour chart, my initial thought was, "WE ARE OFF TO THE RACES! LET THE BULLS RUN FREE!"
That thought lasted about 1.5 seconds. Then I saw something that confirmed in my mind that BTC might take a massive dump. Here's why...
The peak of the run, which was $9950, did not take out the previous high of about $10,000. That's a declining double top. I can't find a way to paint a bullish scenario from this. The stochastic on the 4-hour looks like it is headed downward. The 1-day chart stochastic tells us that price could possibly continue upward, and momentum on the fast and slow lines are still headed up on a steep angle. But as I always say, the key will be looking at what price we return at the stochastic peaks and dips. On this 4-hour chart, the stochastic peak at $10,000 was not as high up in the overbought territory as the current one that appears to be completed. Barring a double-humped camel stochastic effect, this peak is done.
Something else that I notice is that the new red line you see connecting the dots on the two peaks is still in a declining slope, at the exact same angle of the parallel trading channel, and the extra red line I constructed previously right above the channel. To me, that means overall momentum is still bearish. However, a strong surge which takes out the previous high would change my mind. Until then, I'm not betting on the bull market starting just yet.
The weak volume on this previous peak has me skeptical also. Whenever I see big runs on declining volume, it usually develops into a bull trap. And keep in mind, there is a great possibility that the Tether criminals could be behind both of these mini-runups.
Don't take this as financial advice unless you want to lose your money and stand in the bread line.
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro
That thought lasted about 1.5 seconds. Then I saw something that confirmed in my mind that BTC might take a massive dump. Here's why...
The peak of the run, which was $9950, did not take out the previous high of about $10,000. That's a declining double top. I can't find a way to paint a bullish scenario from this. The stochastic on the 4-hour looks like it is headed downward. The 1-day chart stochastic tells us that price could possibly continue upward, and momentum on the fast and slow lines are still headed up on a steep angle. But as I always say, the key will be looking at what price we return at the stochastic peaks and dips. On this 4-hour chart, the stochastic peak at $10,000 was not as high up in the overbought territory as the current one that appears to be completed. Barring a double-humped camel stochastic effect, this peak is done.
Something else that I notice is that the new red line you see connecting the dots on the two peaks is still in a declining slope, at the exact same angle of the parallel trading channel, and the extra red line I constructed previously right above the channel. To me, that means overall momentum is still bearish. However, a strong surge which takes out the previous high would change my mind. Until then, I'm not betting on the bull market starting just yet.
The weak volume on this previous peak has me skeptical also. Whenever I see big runs on declining volume, it usually develops into a bull trap. And keep in mind, there is a great possibility that the Tether criminals could be behind both of these mini-runups.
Don't take this as financial advice unless you want to lose your money and stand in the bread line.
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.