BTC IS STILL CORRECTING
Key Observations:
Recent Price Action:
Bitcoin is trading at $95,563, finding support near the 50-day SMA, currently at $95,000.
The recent high of $108,400 marked the peak of the rally before the ongoing correction began.
The rejection from $99,860 and the lower high formation highlight weakening bullish momentum in the short term.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support:
Immediate support lies at the 50-day SMA ($95,000), a critical level for maintaining short-term structure.
Stronger support lies around $89,000, which aligns with prior consolidation and psychological significance.
$73,835: A critical horizontal level that must hold to preserve the broader macro bullish trend.
Resistance:
$99,860: Former support now acting as a strong resistance level; Bitcoin needs to reclaim this level for a bullish continuation.
$108,400: Recent high and critical resistance to surpass for resuming the uptrend.
Volume:
Volume during the pullback remains relatively low compared to the rally, suggesting profit-taking rather than aggressive selling.
Any significant move needs a volume increase to confirm the trend direction.
RSI Analysis:
RSI is trending near 45, reflecting bearish momentum but not yet oversold.
No clear bullish divergence has emerged, which would indicate potential for an imminent reversal.
Interpretation:
Correction Underway:
The failure to hold above $99,860 and the rejection from $108,400 signal a short-term correction.
Price action hovering near the 50-day SMA at $95,000 suggests this is a critical support level to watch.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Case:
Bitcoin holds above $95,000 (50-day SMA) and consolidates, forming a higher low.
A successful reclaim of $99,860 would indicate a potential retest of $108,400.
Bearish Case:
A break below $95,000 could accelerate the correction toward $89,000 or deeper, testing $73,835 as the next major support.
Bitcoin is undergoing a healthy correction after peaking at $108,400, with support currently holding at $95,000 (50-day SMA). The break below $99,860 confirmed short-term bearish momentum, and a further drop to $89,000 is possible if $95,000 fails. The broader bullish trend remains intact, but Bitcoin needs to reclaim $99,860 to confirm a reversal and retest the highs. Monitor the 50-day SMA, volume, and RSI for indications of the next move.
Recent Price Action:
Bitcoin is trading at $95,563, finding support near the 50-day SMA, currently at $95,000.
The recent high of $108,400 marked the peak of the rally before the ongoing correction began.
The rejection from $99,860 and the lower high formation highlight weakening bullish momentum in the short term.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support:
Immediate support lies at the 50-day SMA ($95,000), a critical level for maintaining short-term structure.
Stronger support lies around $89,000, which aligns with prior consolidation and psychological significance.
$73,835: A critical horizontal level that must hold to preserve the broader macro bullish trend.
Resistance:
$99,860: Former support now acting as a strong resistance level; Bitcoin needs to reclaim this level for a bullish continuation.
$108,400: Recent high and critical resistance to surpass for resuming the uptrend.
Volume:
Volume during the pullback remains relatively low compared to the rally, suggesting profit-taking rather than aggressive selling.
Any significant move needs a volume increase to confirm the trend direction.
RSI Analysis:
RSI is trending near 45, reflecting bearish momentum but not yet oversold.
No clear bullish divergence has emerged, which would indicate potential for an imminent reversal.
Interpretation:
Correction Underway:
The failure to hold above $99,860 and the rejection from $108,400 signal a short-term correction.
Price action hovering near the 50-day SMA at $95,000 suggests this is a critical support level to watch.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Case:
Bitcoin holds above $95,000 (50-day SMA) and consolidates, forming a higher low.
A successful reclaim of $99,860 would indicate a potential retest of $108,400.
Bearish Case:
A break below $95,000 could accelerate the correction toward $89,000 or deeper, testing $73,835 as the next major support.
Bitcoin is undergoing a healthy correction after peaking at $108,400, with support currently holding at $95,000 (50-day SMA). The break below $99,860 confirmed short-term bearish momentum, and a further drop to $89,000 is possible if $95,000 fails. The broader bullish trend remains intact, but Bitcoin needs to reclaim $99,860 to confirm a reversal and retest the highs. Monitor the 50-day SMA, volume, and RSI for indications of the next move.
scott.melker@texaswestcapital.com
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