BTC/USD: Bitcoin's Weekly Pullback Perspective

11 Sep 2020

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To start off with the conclusion, Bitcoin is bullish long term.

Analysis
- Bitcoin has broken out of a descending trend line resistance
- This resistance has lasted for over 2 years, and has been tested 3 times
- While all tests of this trend line has ended up in a rejection, this year, for the first time in 2 years, we have created a higher high on the weekly
- As a result, we saw a breakout to 12k levels, turning the resistance into support
- We saw a rejection at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement resistance, currently having bounced on the 0.618 support
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled down to neutral levels
- While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing potentiality for a death cross, further confirmation is required.

Projection
- Bitcoin has to close above 10.5k in order to confirm the immediate continuation of a bullish trend
- However, given the current situation, it seems that it'll be filling the CME Futures price gap at 9.6k
- Until 8.8k levels, where the 0.5 Fibonacci support and descending trend line converge, the short term bearish trend should be seen as a pullback

Don't predict the market. Take it by levels, and play by probabilities.

- Michael Wang-