I've been struggling with how to position myself after having done reasonably well since last year. BTC
in particular is a bit difficult to predict but since it tends to lead all alts, we need to consider it first. What I see is that we recently broke the downward trendline
from early this year. "shorts" stopped themselves above and others have fomo'ed in. As such, BTC
has continued to trade a bit heavy this week and I am thinking we might need to test the bottom of the triangle down around $5800-6000. I think alot of folks are anticipating those levels holding, but globally, we are facing the reality of a recession (thanks Mr Trump). I dont believe the crypto market has ever been stress-tested under these conditions and I suspect a looming recession will NOT be price positive. So a break lower to say $2500-3000 should shake alot of the weak longs out as the market prices in declining global productivity.
This would also be consistent with the declining global crypto volume
that we've seen over the past couple of months. I dramatice move lower would then bring BTC
and alts to a point where it might start to attract "new" money...because I dont see any signs of new money coming into the market since the December ramp-up.
Regardless, strap yourselves in kids, its going to be a bumpy ride.