Bitcoin Weak Bullish Hidden Continued Divergence
It was a exciting long weekend tracking the BTC markets and amazing seeing the fear and frustration from people that were once very bullish turn quickly towards the bear hibernation.
So let’s continue with the hourly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart. It’s been a steady decline for the past week and even longer than that.
From the price drop back on May 23rd, I have drawn a falling wedge formation that is outlined with those black lines. Price bounced quite a few times from the tops and bottoms of that channel on the way down and gave me some hope that it would resolve appropriately.
All those wicks at the bottom of that black line channel last night were indicative that there was good support from $7,100 to $7,000 and once price was rejected several times over night and to the early morning. The market decided it was time for a little relief rally.
Price then shot up all the way up to the previous support at the lime green line of $7,500 and has gotten all the way up to $7,536 earlier today for almost a 7% move.
Interestingly enough, price tapped that previous .618 long-term Fibonacci retracement level, where traders are now looking to short from.
Other good signs, is that price plowed right on through several hourly moving averages today, including the top of the down trending pink channel that we have been following. This is another encouraging sign on decent volume, however the follow-through in the coming hours and days will be key.
RSI and MACD are both hovering around overbought levels despite price showing strength. In the short-term a pull-back is almost certainly due and the hourly volume is petering out.
I am shooting for a pull-back to around $7,300 to test the turquoise 20 hour moving average to see if it can hold the bullish momentum. With any luck, price will reset the RSI to much lower levels for the next rally up. A .5 Fib retracement from the bullish move last night would also be around $7,289 and a reasonable area to target for a short-term move.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, this blue up trending line here is the bulls best friend. We were reviewing last week how this line would be stanch support in stopping the price from falling.
This line connects all the previous lows from 2018 and on the logarithmic chart it connects quite a few previous years support and resistance points as well, even heading back to 2013.
Sure enough the levy held for now, but what I find most interesting is the RSI. What we have is a double bottom this low, if it holds and the one back in April. The RSI back in April was 30.29 and the RSI yesterday was 30.38, just a few fractions higher and making a higher low and keeping the uptrend and support barely alive. I have taken an extra snapshot of the RSI to give you a closer look.
The downside is that there is still some strong bearish hidden continued divergence as well and seeing how much the RSI has rebounded today is a little disconcerting to where the RSI may be at when and if price gets back to the top of this triangle between the blue up trending and red down trending lines. I am getting a bit ahead of myself though. I think many of us would be happy with a rally for now.
The beauty is that for now there is a nice bullish engulfing candle off of this bottom for today. If holds over the next few hours its reasonable to assume we could get a rally to the previous horizontal support at around $8,000 to $8,200. If price does somehow manage to breakdown, oblivion into the $4000 levels it is.
So let’s continue with the hourly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart. It’s been a steady decline for the past week and even longer than that.
From the price drop back on May 23rd, I have drawn a falling wedge formation that is outlined with those black lines. Price bounced quite a few times from the tops and bottoms of that channel on the way down and gave me some hope that it would resolve appropriately.
All those wicks at the bottom of that black line channel last night were indicative that there was good support from $7,100 to $7,000 and once price was rejected several times over night and to the early morning. The market decided it was time for a little relief rally.
Price then shot up all the way up to the previous support at the lime green line of $7,500 and has gotten all the way up to $7,536 earlier today for almost a 7% move.
Interestingly enough, price tapped that previous .618 long-term Fibonacci retracement level, where traders are now looking to short from.
Other good signs, is that price plowed right on through several hourly moving averages today, including the top of the down trending pink channel that we have been following. This is another encouraging sign on decent volume, however the follow-through in the coming hours and days will be key.
RSI and MACD are both hovering around overbought levels despite price showing strength. In the short-term a pull-back is almost certainly due and the hourly volume is petering out.
I am shooting for a pull-back to around $7,300 to test the turquoise 20 hour moving average to see if it can hold the bullish momentum. With any luck, price will reset the RSI to much lower levels for the next rally up. A .5 Fib retracement from the bullish move last night would also be around $7,289 and a reasonable area to target for a short-term move.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, this blue up trending line here is the bulls best friend. We were reviewing last week how this line would be stanch support in stopping the price from falling.
This line connects all the previous lows from 2018 and on the logarithmic chart it connects quite a few previous years support and resistance points as well, even heading back to 2013.
Sure enough the levy held for now, but what I find most interesting is the RSI. What we have is a double bottom this low, if it holds and the one back in April. The RSI back in April was 30.29 and the RSI yesterday was 30.38, just a few fractions higher and making a higher low and keeping the uptrend and support barely alive. I have taken an extra snapshot of the RSI to give you a closer look.
The downside is that there is still some strong bearish hidden continued divergence as well and seeing how much the RSI has rebounded today is a little disconcerting to where the RSI may be at when and if price gets back to the top of this triangle between the blue up trending and red down trending lines. I am getting a bit ahead of myself though. I think many of us would be happy with a rally for now.
The beauty is that for now there is a nice bullish engulfing candle off of this bottom for today. If holds over the next few hours its reasonable to assume we could get a rally to the previous horizontal support at around $8,000 to $8,200. If price does somehow manage to breakdown, oblivion into the $4000 levels it is.
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