BEARISH PINBAR ON BTC
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BTC has done nothing but respect resistance levels and form lower highs. On top of that, the S&P is pushing lower and the dollar is going higher which both put great bearish pressure on BTC. To top it off, BTC formed a strong bearish pin bar that bounced back down from 20.5k. The 18.5k is still holding, but the environment doesn't favor it whatsoever. There have been some other short signals forming in recent weeks and yet the market did not follow trough. That is why you don't rely on optimism but listen to the market. Market does what the market wants to do.
If you saw my first post, I was talking about a short position on XRP, but following the trial events it broke out of range and spiked around 30%. This WAS included as risk, I was prepared for the breakout and my trade got stopped which minimalized the loss. I do not (and can not) know what the market will do, I can only prepare and manage risk AROUND the market.
Now, BTC might in theory somehow create some small bullish momentum up to 21-22k area, but the risk for that is HIGH and it is against the current structure AND against the economic environment. It is most unwise to bet against such odds. When BTC was at 69K people were calling for 100K, and look where we are now. If you are INVESTING long term, then this environment is not a bad environment to start SLOWLY accumulating, buying in small bites ONLY, but the current position favors lower prices to come. Bitcoin might rally around 17-18K area, but it might go as low as 8K as far as we know. We don't (know). No one does. So think where you position yourself and how you manage risk.
Risk should be evaluated around 17.5k area, as that is the low of the mid june crash. A bounce back to 19k is also possible, and risk should be managed accordingly. Momentum could break even lower to 16 or 14K, but the risk is too high. More conservative option is a price target of 17.8-18k, and more aggressive option would be around 17k UNLESS another bearish signal appears which would allow for a lower price target. Again, the market does NOT have to agree.
If you saw my first post, I was talking about a short position on XRP, but following the trial events it broke out of range and spiked around 30%. This WAS included as risk, I was prepared for the breakout and my trade got stopped which minimalized the loss. I do not (and can not) know what the market will do, I can only prepare and manage risk AROUND the market.
Now, BTC might in theory somehow create some small bullish momentum up to 21-22k area, but the risk for that is HIGH and it is against the current structure AND against the economic environment. It is most unwise to bet against such odds. When BTC was at 69K people were calling for 100K, and look where we are now. If you are INVESTING long term, then this environment is not a bad environment to start SLOWLY accumulating, buying in small bites ONLY, but the current position favors lower prices to come. Bitcoin might rally around 17-18K area, but it might go as low as 8K as far as we know. We don't (know). No one does. So think where you position yourself and how you manage risk.
Risk should be evaluated around 17.5k area, as that is the low of the mid june crash. A bounce back to 19k is also possible, and risk should be managed accordingly. Momentum could break even lower to 16 or 14K, but the risk is too high. More conservative option is a price target of 17.8-18k, and more aggressive option would be around 17k UNLESS another bearish signal appears which would allow for a lower price target. Again, the market does NOT have to agree.
Nota
Just like the S&P, Bitcoin is struggling to get any momentum, and is still respecting zones (hasn't breached neither 19.5k or 18.5k lines). This indecisive behavior is rather tricky and dangerous, as no one wants to be trapped on the wrong side, and no one knows which side it will be for certain. On the other side, the environment favors bearish momentum, but potential is limited and that move would be considered aggressive. We had two attempts to breach over 19.5k, but both failed, which supports the idea of bearish short term structure, but will it break, when it will break and how strong the break will be, the market will decide, NOT ME. Market is random and logic often fails. That's why risk management is the core to this game.
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