Not Out of the Woods Yet

5 Sep 2017

Over the last couple days BTC has made a massive correction of up to $1000 on some exchanges. Browsing through my feed I have noticed a couple post of people calling the bottom, and so I feel obbligated to share with you my IF/THEN theory.
Based on the chart above, BTC is on it's way to the $4440 mark. This is a possible turning point for BTC.
Now, IF BTC continues to push through the the green trendline shown, it is likely that we will push farther to the $4500, $4600, and possibly the previous high.
However I do not think this is likely.
Here's why:
1. The one day chart on BTC still remains very bearish. Even with the 4 hr MACD nearing its pivot.
2. The ADX is very weak, meaning this short-term trend up could reverse at anytime.
3. Even though the RSI is moving up with the price, it is showing very strong sign of divergence, indicating that this trend may continue down.
4. That downward trendline will hold a massive amount of reistance, which will likely cause all of the above to be proven correct.
So with all of the reasons above, I am going to leave of option of this going bullish open, but I am calling a short.

My plan of action:

IF BTC creates a lower low, I will wait until we pass back into the red zone to trigger my short. This will likely send us back down into the $3000's.
IF BTC pushes through the green trendline I will place a long order with my first target being $4500, then following the ones listed above.

Regardless of entry, I will post my additional profit levels and stops in the comments below.

Thanks again for reading!
I wish you all good luck!

DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.

5 Sep 2017

Nota

Long order not yet placed. Too many negative signals; waiting on more of a confirmation for position.

6 Sep 2017

Dagangan aktif

Despite the break in the trendline, no longs were ever placed. Instead, short was placed @ 4460 after confirmation of hidden divergence.

6 Sep 2017

Dagangan ditutup secara manual

stop hit. got greedy and BTC too a large swing up

6 Sep 2017

Nota

For the Bears [advise caution]
BTC appears to be very bullish, finally pushing through the last downward trendline.
However, buying into the .618 fib level is rarely a good idea.
This is because the .618 fib is often a retracement point for a trend.
So IF BTC breaks its current uptrend line, and falls/close below the .5 fib level. I will reanalyze, and likely place a short. However, this is a very risky trade due to the amount of fomo in the current market. So i would likely take profit at the fib levels mentioned and re-enter the trade accordingly.
IF the pattern completes itself, we could see profits all the way down to 3800's.
IF the pattern does not complete itself, this should still give us some new entries to go Long.
note: I currently hold no postion.. I am just keeping you updated with some of the possibilities. Any criticism is welcome!