goldbug1

BTC - Have We Topped and Where to Next

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
It's not that I'm always a bear, it just seems we get to our target levels in a bullish manner much quicker than expected. On Oct 9th             we posted "the next leg up" with a final target of $6000. We got there in like 2-3 days or close enough that we were looking for a signal for a pullback. Now AS LONG AS $6252 is not broken and held (I don't mean a wick) I have updated the chart with two likely paths in my opinion. Regardless we are going higher. Of course the further we correct the higher our target level becomes as you can see. Also every wave correction has corrected by at least 0.5, and all but one corrected by 0.618. This is not a dream, this is not a wish, this is not throwing some lines on a chart and flipping a rocket on it calling for the next leg higher, this is factual data as I showed on my "key levels according to Fibonacci. Now do we have to follow the same pattern? NO but it is very highly likely regardless of what some may think. I know many have trouble thinking ohhh give up on the $2700 number it will never happen. Ok let me put it in simple terms.

Most everyone I'm sure has been in a relationship, many have probably been married. I'm sure everyone has broken up with someone at some point or gotten a divorce. Well the market is no different when you get emotionally tied. What does this mean? Well nobody goes into a relationship or gets married thinking ohhh we will probably breakup. No you think the opposite, ohhh this is my soul mate, it's perfect the ying to my yang. But then something happens along the way. Maybe there is adultery, maybe a drinking problem, maybe..... well you know because most of us have been there. (Yes I can tell by some posts that many have not left there parents basement in years and the only relationship they have is online but darcyspringpopper@twitter told you to stop tweeting her which is the same thing). I mean who get's married with the knowledge of getting divorced? Nobody but divorces happen. After two divorces (wasn't my fault believe me I'm a great guy) I look at my relationships differently. I look at it as well what if it doesn't work out? I'm much more cautious. Do I want to move all my furniture in now, or take it slow to see how things evolve, let me make sure this is the right thing to do and let's take it slow.

Well this is the same philosophy in investing. Once you have been through a couple breakups or divorces! You learn to be cautious and expect the unexpected. This is why we move into markets slowly not all at once. If your new to the market can you buy here? Sure you can, but I would only bring over a few clothes and a suitcase, I wouldn't be moving in the bedroom set yet. Now of course some never learn and jump in from relationship to relationship. Yes I see some of those out there too.

So regardless if you agree or disagree with me, I'm only going by what the chart is telling me. And believe me I put a lot more information on my charts then most, maybe too much. Anyone that knows anything about charts is looking at the same things I am. Now maybe they think well this is wave III             and this is an WXY blah blah blah, but overall we are looking at the same chart, and there are times we will have a different opinion, but I can tell you from investing for over 30 years, never think ohhhhh the market can't correct.
Komen: 5 Wave cycle appears to be completed as we corrected to the 0.618 level of the 5th wave in wave V. This is where it gets a little more complex, and the reason you have not seen me make a trade. We could travel in a zig zag correction before pulling back to the overall correction of wave V. Then there is still the broader correction of the entire I,II,III,IV,V. Which may or may not happen. But I feel pretty confident we see $3500 before it's all over. But this is just my opinion.
snapshot
hallo.
1) i dont' understand why you say 6199 was the 1,618 fib extension. Drawing it whit TW trend based fib extension i have that 6199 is like 1, or few more, that is why i always considered that this level was too low to be the top of 5 wave
2) the extension of 5 wave is pretty rare, dont' you think it coul better be the extension of 3 wave as i sayd?
3) at what poit do you think we are now in the histroical big Elliot wave? i mean, considering the biggest cycle at what point do you think are we?

thanks
Balas
@goldbug1 very basic question here, maybe I'm oversimplifying things: when I put the 200 day EMA on the daily chart, it looks like it's held as quite a solid support throughout 2017. Currently, the 200 day EMA would put us at around $3700 today and climbing as each day passes. That being said, is it naive to assume that it will continue to hold? I know you have some predictions of price getting down to the $3500-$3700 level, but that would be breaking the 200 EMA and would be a first this year if it holds.....Obviously you have far more experience than most of us so I would love to hear your insights on this.

Thanks!
Balas
Thank you @goldbug1 for this amazing analysis and the courtesy of providing us all with quality TA! I've been following you for a while and the knowledge you share is priceless. After digging in to the details on my own I'm very confident in this idea. Price will rise but not break $5950 and then head down. $5500 will not provide sufficient support and then it's down to $4200. EMA100 on daily will get briefly passed just like in mid July and mid September. I bet s2x FUD will be the catalyst this time. Maybe a couple of comments from some guy at JPMorgan ;). If this plays out well I will increase my trading position by approx 35%. Thank you!
Balas
You indeed are a literate spamming bear.
Balas
@bysteven, How is a target price of $8300 and $15,000 bearish?
+2 Balas
bysteven goldbug1
@goldbug1, Just kidding!
+1 Balas
@bysteven, LOL
Balas
Please, sweet baby Jesus!, make BTC come down 30% or more. It's all I want for your birthday, lol!
+1 Balas
goldbug1 PRO JonnieGopher
+1 Balas
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