Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that BTC has formed a bear flag consolidation, after failing to breakout above the inverse head and shoulders pattern on 3/5. Looking at the action inside of the bear flag, you can see that BTC has produced several failed attempts to successfully rally out of the flag. Resistance has been found at the 50 EMA (in orange) and the current candle is a borderline bearish engulfing candle, that has pushed BTC back into the body of the flag. The only thing holding BTC up at this point, is the 20 EMA (in blue.) As I'm writing this, the 20 EMA is actually being pierced. So, if we get some candle closes below the 20 EMA here, the next stop should be the pink trendline, as it converges with the 78.6% retrace. Below there, we should see a bear flag breakdown. If this bear flag does break down, we are very likely to see test of the low on 2/6, meaning BTC will likely fall to 6,000, or lower.
If you focus on the broad picture of the chart, you can see that BTC has just failed at my infamous green trendline. The last candle rallied up to it, touched it, and now we've plummeted lower, printing a bearish engulfing candle in the process. Technically, we appear to have just popped out of the bear flag, to confirm that trendline as resistance. That is very bearish price action, and if this current candle closes below the 20 EMA (in blue) we are very likely to see sustained downside action. I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic. Au revoir.
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Jesus, TradingView stays TradingView. When bitcoin goes down everyone is calling short. When it goes up everyone is calling long.
When people were saying ‘BTC to 15k!’ my question was “who is going to buy?”. Now my question is “who is going it sell?” Everyone already bought all they could at different points of the dip. No one is going to sell it now. Whales can push this market to 1$ per bitcoin – sure – but they can also do the opposite and your charts will never predict it.
Forget about these graphs. The market is having a hangover after an army noob fanatics bought a shit ton of coins for outlandish prices. Just wait for a few months for Christ sake. Maybe we are in a full bear like in 2013. But I don’t think so. I believe in greed and naivety. They will push this market up many more times. As long as people have dreams and money crypto will not die. You got your positions – hold them. Close the laptop and go on vacation.
And btw this 'poop' analyst was so wrong so many times that I don’t even know what exactly makes him ‘magic’. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
@scinar03, Im actually surprised he called a direction on this one. Normally its rubbish like 'we are here now we might go up and if we dont go up we will go down' (one of the 2 scenarios will occur and he will talk about himself like he is God. Needless to say, we will have an excuse ready to go if BTC goes up from here after he called a short... maybe something like 'tbf I said volume was too low' or some other BS he always seems to have ready as an excuse.
@scinar03, Probably the most smart comment I read on TV since long.
KenBkk
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@scinar03, copy/paste a comment I wrote a few days ago:
It seems to me that people are missing identifying where are all these new buyers are supposed to come from. We've had an amazing bull-run in end of 2017 with lots of media coverage and lots of FOMO. Lots of people jumping in to get rich quick. Now the general sentiment among people that are curious but not yet have any crypto seem to be more that of "oh, I heard Bitcoin crashed". This is not the kind of atmosphere that attract lots of new money. Lots of new money bought at above 10-15kUSD and then got a first harsh lesson. They are not necessarily in a hurry to get back in.
If you say "Oh, there are lots active traders/holder". Sure, there are and they include you and I. So why is the price not shooting up? Well, people are not that sure. People are waiting. There is currently not enough new money that is blindly being thrown at BTC, like it was when BTC passed 10k in 2017. So these "Oh my god, no way it will go down substantially" are just sentiments based on the previous ATH. Lower the previous high of 20k to a more sensible 10k and suddenly 6k seems very normal and 3-4k seems like a uncomfortable possibility.
2017 was a fantastic year for BTC but remember that it started 2017 at about 1k. Is it really so "unrealistic" that it could dip to 3-4k? Not long ago 6k seemed unlikely. It's weird that people think further dips are "unrealistic" when massive spikes are almost always followed by a long term downtrend. People that bought at 1k and holding don't think the current 9-10k is a great price. And if they don't see a speedy recovery they will not gladly wait for another dip. They will take out profits too. And they don't have to sell 100%. Selling just a minority of an account could crash the price further.
People say "Oh, 2014 dropped because this and that, it's so different this time". Well, at the end of 2013 BTC jumped almost 10x. How about that? Why is that ignored? I think 2014 is a valid indicator of what COULD happen. This could indeed be a possibility. If you look at altcoins similar things happen all the time. A 10-20x spike and then a period of cooling down. I think it's very dangerous to assume that BTC is somehow immune to overheating.
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Do a TA from a bull's view and from a bear's view and be honest about it. You will find indicators that will support both scenarios.
Wasn't it just a couple of days ago you said it was going the the moon! HAHAHAHAHA
ticksup
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@Chester1313, Poop is one of the greatest clowns of the space right now. Unfortunately many people still listen to him...
Chester1313
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@diogoluis, Yeah...and he seems very cocky. I have been trading professionally for 13 years and never heard a trader at any company I was with talk like this guy.
When people were saying ‘BTC to 15k!’ my question was “who is going to buy?”. Now my question is “who is going it sell?” Everyone already bought all they could at different points of the dip. No one is going to sell it now. Whales can push this market to 1$ per bitcoin – sure – but they can also do the opposite and your charts will never predict it.
Forget about these graphs. The market is having a hangover after an army noob fanatics bought a shit ton of coins for outlandish prices. Just wait for a few months for Christ sake. Maybe we are in a full bear like in 2013. But I don’t think so. I believe in greed and naivety. They will push this market up many more times. As long as people have dreams and money crypto will not die. You got your positions – hold them. Close the laptop and go on vacation.
And btw this 'poop' analyst was so wrong so many times that I don’t even know what exactly makes him ‘magic’. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.