Bitcoin Monopoly - The get out of whale free card
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Hello it's Manta Ray Mike with a take on Bitcoin,
The whales, the whales! It's always the goddam whales isn't it.
A call didn't go the way you planned? It was the whales
Burnt the toast? It was the whales
An area of the UK popularly associated with sheep farming? Wales.
Firstly I am not saying that whales don't move the markets, of course they do. The big movers are the ones that can set momentum in both directions and will manipulate price action according to their strategy to maximise gains, this is like any other market, except in crypto this is amplified 1000%. This is also why I advise to be wary of candlestick patterns, these can be 'painted' with minimal effort to give a false direction of the market.
Where this excuse gets lazy, is to take the simplistic view that whales will choose the direction of the market against all the odds. This is exactly what we saw being claimed during our initial move up last week when it was clear that indicators were bottomed out and we were oversold to hell and back, yet we still saw the shock and indignation of those predicting an immediate drop to sub 5k when we took the path of least resistance and moved up, a move down at that time would have taken substantial effort and whilst I am not saying it was impossible for whales to have took us down to those depths, this would have been at a high cost and for what gain? So we could bounce back up again after we hit the many 'TA experts' buy orders?
So here we are currently dancing with $8,200 whilst i'm writing this, so where to next?
The daily chart is showing us the momentum for a further upwards movement with our RSI aiming gently upward and MACD holding course.
What does the SMI say to the god of oversold? 'Not today'.
However my personal feeling is that we lack the momentum to break the $8,600 area of resitance, which is fine since a retrace at these levels would be a welcome relief to blow of some steam before more growth. You can see above I have drawn some very tentative lines where I feel price action is moving.
I believe we have a drop ahead of us to the $7,800 area which I believe will hold steady, this will be followed by a few days to a week of sideways action acting as an accumulation zone before the next move upwards which I believe will be halted by the very large psychological block around the $11,500 - $12,000 range.
The daily view can be quite misleading though, I am constantly astounded by some popular traders on here making longer term predictions based on the daily view of indicators, as I have pointed out in my previous update when we take a step back the likelihood of a spring uptrend becomes much clearer.
If we take a step back to even a 3 day view we can see the first bullish MACD cross to happen since October! If that isn't significant then i'm not sure what is. The weekly view is also looking bullish with our RSI showing some very good upwards momentum and we are emerging from the depths of the oversold SMI. Our RSI is also reaching towards the 50 mark which will be bullish indeed when we surpass, which I am confident we will in the coming weeks.
Will we make a new low in the medium term? Possibly, although to say with any certainty would be gambling. It is easy to see that a significant resistance will be in place around the $11,500 - $12,500 area, a strong enough bounce off this area could cause a panic move which will allow the whales, yes the whales, to capitalise on the downwards momentum to take us back to our uptrend resistsance, from there we could trend sideways or we could break though, it's too early to say.
A counter arguement would be if we were to actually break $12,000 this would be a tactical move for the big players, since a break above here could kickstart the kind of buying frenzy that could take us significantly higher, for now though we can only wait and see.
I hope that this has been useful and good luck with those alt coin gains we are soon to see.
The whales, the whales! It's always the goddam whales isn't it.
A call didn't go the way you planned? It was the whales
Burnt the toast? It was the whales
An area of the UK popularly associated with sheep farming? Wales.
Firstly I am not saying that whales don't move the markets, of course they do. The big movers are the ones that can set momentum in both directions and will manipulate price action according to their strategy to maximise gains, this is like any other market, except in crypto this is amplified 1000%. This is also why I advise to be wary of candlestick patterns, these can be 'painted' with minimal effort to give a false direction of the market.
Where this excuse gets lazy, is to take the simplistic view that whales will choose the direction of the market against all the odds. This is exactly what we saw being claimed during our initial move up last week when it was clear that indicators were bottomed out and we were oversold to hell and back, yet we still saw the shock and indignation of those predicting an immediate drop to sub 5k when we took the path of least resistance and moved up, a move down at that time would have taken substantial effort and whilst I am not saying it was impossible for whales to have took us down to those depths, this would have been at a high cost and for what gain? So we could bounce back up again after we hit the many 'TA experts' buy orders?
So here we are currently dancing with $8,200 whilst i'm writing this, so where to next?
The daily chart is showing us the momentum for a further upwards movement with our RSI aiming gently upward and MACD holding course.
What does the SMI say to the god of oversold? 'Not today'.
However my personal feeling is that we lack the momentum to break the $8,600 area of resitance, which is fine since a retrace at these levels would be a welcome relief to blow of some steam before more growth. You can see above I have drawn some very tentative lines where I feel price action is moving.
I believe we have a drop ahead of us to the $7,800 area which I believe will hold steady, this will be followed by a few days to a week of sideways action acting as an accumulation zone before the next move upwards which I believe will be halted by the very large psychological block around the $11,500 - $12,000 range.
The daily view can be quite misleading though, I am constantly astounded by some popular traders on here making longer term predictions based on the daily view of indicators, as I have pointed out in my previous update when we take a step back the likelihood of a spring uptrend becomes much clearer.
If we take a step back to even a 3 day view we can see the first bullish MACD cross to happen since October! If that isn't significant then i'm not sure what is. The weekly view is also looking bullish with our RSI showing some very good upwards momentum and we are emerging from the depths of the oversold SMI. Our RSI is also reaching towards the 50 mark which will be bullish indeed when we surpass, which I am confident we will in the coming weeks.
Will we make a new low in the medium term? Possibly, although to say with any certainty would be gambling. It is easy to see that a significant resistance will be in place around the $11,500 - $12,500 area, a strong enough bounce off this area could cause a panic move which will allow the whales, yes the whales, to capitalise on the downwards momentum to take us back to our uptrend resistsance, from there we could trend sideways or we could break though, it's too early to say.
A counter arguement would be if we were to actually break $12,000 this would be a tactical move for the big players, since a break above here could kickstart the kind of buying frenzy that could take us significantly higher, for now though we can only wait and see.
I hope that this has been useful and good luck with those alt coin gains we are soon to see.
Nota
Heikin Ashi candle closed at about $8,700 and now we are retracing I realise of course this is not the most imaginative ideas and perhaps that denotes the lack of popularity, however this is where I see things headed so I wanted to chart how I saw the path taking us.
However I will be keeping with this idea until it is proven incorrect and shall stand by any errors made, there will be no blaming of whales.
For now we can see clearly the need to retrace following being overbought and we will head down to test support which I believe will not drop below $7,800, an important factor to remember is that whilst bulltraps have made hesitant buyers, the recent bear traps will have also added an air of caution to sellers.
This will be invalidated if we stay above $8,200 or the alternative is that we test the uptrend channel around $6,800
Thanks for reading
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I seem to have fallen into the trap of underestimating bitcoin with this prediction, I was rather off the mark! I will be doing a better one shortly after much thought and research
This is what becomes interesting in trend reversals, whilst of course we are still in a bear market by definition, this is a prime example of myself failing to adapt to a changing market environment
Cheers to all those that did read
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