Possible D Leg Coming in BTC

9 Mac

I've not really seen the things I'd have expected to see so far in my break thesis and this pending W shape alongside the previous possible Elliot count I mentioned has me thinking we might be about to see a big pop.

Would absolutely love to see this for the short set up.

Trying some longs here where the wouldbe C leg would end if I have this right.

Would be out sharpish under the lows, IDK how bad that could get how quickly.

But I don't think it's time for the real crypto sell off just yet.

9 Mac

Dagangan aktif

Have longs on.

Shorts should be very careful if we rip. Gooood time to trail stops if you're short. Can end up trading above your entry otherwise if it spikes.

And D legs are ferocious.

9 Mac

Nota

Hard to be bearish on BTC when it put in that classic bull trap rally to the 76. Perfect rejection and then didn't make a new low.



Why not?

The trend formation there would have us at a new low already.

This feels more likely a trappy low move just staying here long enough for people to make mistakes.

9 Mac

Nota

Here's a post from the 76 high.

That is what should have happened in a bear move.

What has instead happened ... is pretty suspicious.

I always worry as a short when there's a big pending W shape - because IDK if that will make a W or not, but I know if it does- it's horrific to be short into. Often awesome to short after.

9 Mac

Nota

The 76 failure is often an early tell of the end of a trend (up or down). Here the setup should have taken us to a new low, ran a bit, made a sharp rally and then went into a downtrend.

Although we're still now right now, this may prove to be highly significant. The first real sign of the spike having the best odds is getting back above the 76. From above there we generally would head into the strong spike.


So at the very widest, I'd think short stops should be above the 76. Otherwise you can be very close to right (if youre betting on a big drop) and get nailed in a stop hunt.

Or, you could just be wrong and be shorting into the end of a correction- neither of these are things that are fun.

9 Mac

Nota

This idea works equally well on all timeframes. Here's a tiny possible expression of it on the 1 min chart right now.

Perhaps, the first sign of downtrend failure.

9 Mac

Nota

Would be extremely shocked if we didn't see a rally here. All stinks of bear trap.

I get shocks. I'm not saying i'll be right. But if it spikes, makes perfect sense on the chart.

9 Mac

Nota

Smaller charts are far more subject to noise, but this generally not what you'd like to see as a bear.

Retaking this 76 may be signs of a local uptrend starting.