BitcoinTelah dikemas kini BTCUSD - 41k or 46k by the end of the week?
13.01.2022, 3PM UTC --- As BTC quickly bounces off the crucial 40k support up to 44k, it is now eyeing at 46k if upward pressure continues, or 41k if the momentum turns out too weak.
BTC has recently sprung back up into the light blue descending channel, in which we previously got rejected at 52k. This tells us that demand is still present and strong at the crucial 40k support level. However, we shouldn't be too quick to conclude the bulls are back in control, as on-chain data such as future open interests reveal that shorts are not yet getting closed out (source Options Insight on YouTube).
As the volume stays more or less unchanged, we don't expect a brutal sign of strength or of weakness to happen soon, and BTC is likely to stay trading in the blue descending channel at least until the end of this week. Looking at the Phoenix Ascending, as we speak, the blue least square MA and red RSI are still above but close to 50 (values are shown on the right scale) in the 2hr time frame as well as lower time frames, meaning upward pressure is still prevailing in the short term. Thus we can expect two scenarios: either the upward pressure enables BTC to try the upper boundary of the channel at 46k, or the momentum fails and we correct down to the lower boundary around 41k. Given that the NASDAQ index highly correlated with BTC seems in for a small correction at the moment, it's safe to assume 41k is more likely.
In the worst case, a bear trap could happen where the 41k support is brutally broken downwards and we quickly wick deep below, only to liquidate shorts and hunt stop losses, and go back up to try 46k. But the likelihood of the PA developing longer below the yellow line (41k) is lower, because we witnessed that demand is still strong at 40k. Unless big panic selling happens across all markets, we should be safe from another breakdown atm.
Side note: In this analysis I'm using the Phoenix Ascending indicator, I changed its appearance because the last update made it much too cluttered visually with too many colours. Thus I chose to make the important levels stand out (overbought/sold 20/80), and remove unnecessary levels above 100 and below 0. The energy is not shown in this analysis. Hope it's clearer that way for you!
BTC has recently sprung back up into the light blue descending channel, in which we previously got rejected at 52k. This tells us that demand is still present and strong at the crucial 40k support level. However, we shouldn't be too quick to conclude the bulls are back in control, as on-chain data such as future open interests reveal that shorts are not yet getting closed out (source Options Insight on YouTube).
As the volume stays more or less unchanged, we don't expect a brutal sign of strength or of weakness to happen soon, and BTC is likely to stay trading in the blue descending channel at least until the end of this week. Looking at the Phoenix Ascending, as we speak, the blue least square MA and red RSI are still above but close to 50 (values are shown on the right scale) in the 2hr time frame as well as lower time frames, meaning upward pressure is still prevailing in the short term. Thus we can expect two scenarios: either the upward pressure enables BTC to try the upper boundary of the channel at 46k, or the momentum fails and we correct down to the lower boundary around 41k. Given that the NASDAQ index highly correlated with BTC seems in for a small correction at the moment, it's safe to assume 41k is more likely.
In the worst case, a bear trap could happen where the 41k support is brutally broken downwards and we quickly wick deep below, only to liquidate shorts and hunt stop losses, and go back up to try 46k. But the likelihood of the PA developing longer below the yellow line (41k) is lower, because we witnessed that demand is still strong at 40k. Unless big panic selling happens across all markets, we should be safe from another breakdown atm.
Side note: In this analysis I'm using the Phoenix Ascending indicator, I changed its appearance because the last update made it much too cluttered visually with too many colours. Thus I chose to make the important levels stand out (overbought/sold 20/80), and remove unnecessary levels above 100 and below 0. The energy is not shown in this analysis. Hope it's clearer that way for you!
Nota
What makes me think that a sudden breakdown below 40k is UNLIKELY at the moment (not saying impossible) is how high the blue LSMA and red RSI are in the 4hr time frame (around level 80 I think).
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.