|Danger|Don´t expect a stable 100k level

24 Nov

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on a 4-hour timeframe, exhibiting significant recent bullish momentum with some indications of a possible bearish retracement. Below is a detailed analysis:

1. Price Action and Channel Formation
Ascending Channel: The price is trading within an ascending channel, which often acts as a bullish pattern. However, it has recently touched the upper trendline and appears to be rejecting it, suggesting resistance at higher levels.
Bearish Reversal Signals: If the price breaks below the midline or lower boundary of the channel, this could confirm a bearish turn.

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Current Level (65.71): The RSI indicates slightly overbought conditions but hasn't reached extreme levels (>70). A downward crossover of RSI below 50 could confirm increasing bearish momentum.
Watch for Divergence: Monitor for bearish divergence, where price forms higher highs while RSI forms lower highs, signaling weakening bullish strength.

3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
Current Signal: The MACD histogram is decreasing, with the signal line likely converging with the MACD line. A bearish crossover here would indicate a potential shift in momentum.
Downtrend Momentum: If the histogram moves into the negative territory, it would strengthen bearish signals.

4. Volume Flow Indicator (VFI)
Current Status (3.92): Positive but flattening, which might indicate diminishing buying pressure. If the VFI turns negative, it could confirm selling dominance.

5. Key Levels to Watch
Support Levels:
$92,000: Near-term support, corresponding to recent consolidation zones.
$85,000: Critical support level. A break below could trigger further downside, potentially signaling the end of the bullish structure.

Resistance Levels:
$97,000: Strong resistance, as seen from rejection at the top of the channel.

6. Trading Idea: Bearish Case
Trigger for Bearish Move: Watch for:
A breakdown of the ascending channel below $92,000.
RSI dropping below 50.
A bearish MACD crossover.

Target Levels:
First target: $85,000, as a major psychological and technical level.
Secondary target: $75,000, aligning with prior consolidation zones and Fibonacci retracements.

Conclusion:
If the price breaks below $92,000 with confirming bearish signals from RSI, MACD, and volume indicators, it could validate a move toward $85,000. However, failure to break key support levels may suggest the bullish trend will continue.