BTC/USD H4/D1 charts (1/22/2019)
Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to trend slightly lower but has yet to make a strong, continual move down. This morning we saw price drop, hit demand and rebound just under $200 very quickly. There is no doubt that moves like this are causing traders to lose money as their stops are taken out. The market is attempting to find/create liquidity to get price moving in one direction or the other. This has resulted the local white H4 TR outlined in this chart, as well as the much smaller pink TR. We can also see price wicks printing a horizontal broadening wedge (inverted symmetrical triangle) with higher highs that have been rejected at supply and lower lows that have been rejected at demand. This particular pattern tells us that, neither, buyers nor sellers are in control at this time. The H4 MACD is curled up and nearing a bullish cross while RSI has recently bounced just above oversold. As of right now, we have a recent bullish SFP on the H4 and a possible similar candle on the D1. There is still a lot of time left in the D1, so this latter bullish SFP could change but if it holds then we should expect some upward movement over the next day or two, but we ultimately need to see price moving above the noted overhead supply. Generally, we watch for the fifth swing in this pattern to determine direction. If that fifth swing breaks resistance or support and continues, then price should continue in that direction. If, however, it is rejected on that fifth swing, then we usually look for price to continue in the other direction. In this particular case, the recent drop and $200 rebound was the fifth swing and it was rejected at support suggesting price should continue upward now. Whichever direction price ultimately breaks, we should be looking for a minimum of $240, up to a possible $400, of movement beyond the support or resistance of the pattern. Traders need to understand that while this is what is generally expected with this pattern, the reality is that the pattern is not very reliable so risk management is of the utmost importance (or just waiting for a clean signal to enter).
Price continues to flirt with the D1/D3 pivot, consistently pushing above but closing below it. The basic trendlines are outlined on the D1 chart. Price breaking any of these would suggest continuation in the direction of the break. We can see that this morning's move hit the EQ of the D1 demand, so the bounce should've been expected. However, what we need to see is follow-through. As mentioned above, the market is unsure at this time and is looking for liquidity in either direction to provide confidence. The first side to give this confidence will control direction in the short-to-mid term.
Where does price need to get above to continue moving up? On the H4, we need to see price moving above the POC at $3630.51. On the D1, that would be $3809.16. These orange lines denote the area where we should expect to see the most local resistance and, therefore, provide good support if moving above them. To push above them indicates that demand is more dominant than supply. For now, volume and price action seem to suggest some sort of upward movement, but traders looking to limit their risk will usually wait until price closes above the pivot and POC on a TF before entering.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Price continues to flirt with the D1/D3 pivot, consistently pushing above but closing below it. The basic trendlines are outlined on the D1 chart. Price breaking any of these would suggest continuation in the direction of the break. We can see that this morning's move hit the EQ of the D1 demand, so the bounce should've been expected. However, what we need to see is follow-through. As mentioned above, the market is unsure at this time and is looking for liquidity in either direction to provide confidence. The first side to give this confidence will control direction in the short-to-mid term.
Where does price need to get above to continue moving up? On the H4, we need to see price moving above the POC at $3630.51. On the D1, that would be $3809.16. These orange lines denote the area where we should expect to see the most local resistance and, therefore, provide good support if moving above them. To push above them indicates that demand is more dominant than supply. For now, volume and price action seem to suggest some sort of upward movement, but traders looking to limit their risk will usually wait until price closes above the pivot and POC on a TF before entering.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.