BTC Daily chart 22nd August 2023

22 Ogo 2023

In my last update BTCUSD fell beneath the 50MA line. In the days that followed, BTC also fell through the daily 200MA line and corrected all the way back to 25-26k. Question is, was the retracement enough of will BTC go deeper?

If we look at the daily and weekly chart you can notice that BTC might have formed a double top ranging from 25-26k to 30-31k (range = 5-6k). At the moment BTC hovers just above the neckline at 26k. In the coming days (or weeks) i suspect that BTC will retest the neckline, so a small relief rally might be in play. My guess is that an uptrend won't go much higher than the daily 200MA line, which will be tested as resistance.

In the bearish scenario that BTC falls beneath the neckline, and validates the double top hypothesis, we could see a fall that goes all the way to 20k (= neckline - double top range = 25k-5k).

In a bullish scenario, we will see a significant rally that goes higher than the daily 200MA line and will reclaim it as support. And after that the 50MA line has to follow.

25 Ogo 2023

Nota

On the 4h chart we can see that BTC is currently struggling to break above the 50MA line. If it does brake above this line the next point of resistance is the daily 200MA line at 27500$ (which is stronger resistance IMO).

29 Ogo 2023

Nota

The news of Grayscale winning the SEC lawsuit provided BTC with a relief rally (which we were expecting).
On the 4h chart : we can see that BTC has blown past the 50MA line but the real test will be the 200MA line at 28200$.
On the daily chart : we can already see that is BTC struggling to stay above the 200MA line at 27500$.
Will BTC be able to make a daily close above the daily 200MA line or has it already run out of steam? Let me know in the comments.

1 Sep 2023

Nota

The SEC anounced that it will take more time to make a decision about allowing bitcoin ETF's, negating the good news about the Grayscale lawsuit (which fueled the recent rally).
BTC wasn't able to make a clean break through the 200MA line (4h chart). We did get a break and close above the daily 200MA line, but BTC wasn't able to hold this level for long. Once BTC dipped back under this level, it wasn't able to reclaim it.

At the moment of writing, BTC is hovering just above the 25-26k supportzone, which could be the neckline of a double top formation on the weekly chart. A clean break under this supportzone will lead to more downside which could go as deep as 20k.
In a more bullish scenario, BTC will hold above the supportzone while gaining new momentum. But, BTC will need some sort of good news to propel it back upwards (which doesn't seem likely atm but you never know with news).

8 Sep 2023

Nota

On the daily chart we can see that BTC has formed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. A drop below the 25,5k neckline is likely unless positive news is able to save the day.
Another bearish indicator is the death cross which is likely to form over the coming days, which could coincide with a drop below 25,5k.

20 Sep 2023

Nota

After the HnS formation we saw a small dip beneath the neckline on 11th september but without confirmation. BTC managed to climb back above the resistance line at 25,5K resulting in a short squeeze which led it further up.

At this moment BTC is trying to pass the resistance area at 27,2-27,8K which is formed by the 50MA and 200MA trendline.
Only if BTC manages to break and retest this area as support, will it be able to go higher.

In two hours the FED will decide if it will stick to the announced break or if there is an unexpected raise of the intrest rates.
Not raising the intrest rates is most likely and seems to be already priced. If there is a surprise, and the FED does decide to raise the intrest rates, we will probably see more volatility towards the downside.