Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get it! Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that BTC remains inside of a bear flag consolidation. It has surpassed the pink trendline, but it's done so in the form of a bear flag. You can see that the flag is getting to be a bit extended, so we can use the 20 EMA (in blue) as an indicator of it's survival. In other words, if BTC rallies up above the 20 EMA, we con probably throw out the bear flag as a possibility. Looking at the volume, you can see that it has been steadily declining, while BTC has been in this bear flag consolidation. The decline in volume increases it's legitimacy as a bear flag, so we really have to see how it this price action responds to the 20 EMA, if/when BTC gets up there. During this entire downtrend, from 3/5, BTC hasn't tested the 20 EMA a single time, so it wouldn't surprise me if we test it in the near future. On the MACD, you can see that a bullish crossover has occurred, almost perfectly on the rising dotted MACD support level.
So, overall, we have some mixed signals here. There is a bear flag, that has crossed above the pink trendline, while a bullish MACD crossover has occurred. The bear flag has falling resistance levels passing through it, and decreasing volume, which is expected from the flag pattern. Therefore, until we see a move below the bear flag, or above the 20 EMA, it's best to exercise caution here.
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
this market doesn´t really seem to work the way we want . hmm for 90 percent of your followers who value your info, I included it would have been more profitable just to hold. and in the long term absolutely. trying to trade this stuff is hysterical at the best and most likely psychotic. there is not one single confirmed breakout that could have been used in the last weeks to really make money. it was always revised or unconfirmed in hindsight.Listen magic, don't get me wrong I really value your info and many lessons on reading charts and am learning a lot, magic, but 90 percent has been totally useless and actually lost me money. i had sell orders taking profits which i didn't take because you called bull and sold at lows that then turned after you called to bear. it's not personal and i assume full responsibility. but trading ( for investors!!) may be used to find good entry points or points where to take profits or call very overbought situation such as in dec/jan. but that's not how big money is made. money is made by investing and investing means buying at a good price and then holding. holding through the hysteria and noise. thank you magic for all your trading advice, this is trading view after all. it is very valuable but the most important lesson here for me personally , has been that if I hadn't traded I would be better of. if I had stuck to my investing in fundamentally "sound"(if the crypto space can be called that) coins and chilled I would not have eroded large parts of my portfolio It is easy to erode your assets, cash by bad timing , gauging your stops and trying to buy so-called confirmed breakouts. With high fees and failed stop limit orders in exchanges and running after breakouts.Just the fees and minor losses on up or downswings eventually after 3 months amount to huge sums of money.
I am writing this here because I think some others feel that way too but may not realise until its too late.
Even some very good traders have failed and lost over and over in the last weeks!
so I am going back to listening to what Warren Buffet said: Actively trading in stocks will lose 90 percent of people money!
Magic knows this and he is a serious trader, he knows how to stop out and go in and is making money. i guess.
but I assume many here have lost huge portions of their portfolio by getting out and getting back in which you would not have lost if you had just held patiently, sat back with a nice chicka on your lap and a tequila watching the sunrise.
I hope all of you don´t misunderstand me. I am sharing this honestly not bragging about my huge gains but showing that i have engaged in portfolio erosion by trying to trade this market. we tend to loose the longterm perspective this way and can get hurt! i will continue to read about trading and learn to read indicators, read candles, i love it, but will use it more to find good bargains for "stocks" or coins that i want to keep for a minimum of 3-5 years. and thats how you get rich. thats how i got quite well off with btc in the first place.
So this was really long , i apologize but i hope this helps someone to reevaluate his mission and goals and his skillsets!
thank you magic for your sound and free advice and i hope you don´t misunderstand this i really respect your work but i see its limitations even for the skilled person but it can be really dangerous for amateurs, good luck. peace health, prosperity to you all mrcryptopia ;_)
evansmichaelj
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@mr-cryptopia, But... What if I want to age 10 years in only 3 months and lose money at the same time?
ChartmanChris
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@evansmichaelj, haha i feel you mike, i feel 20 years older
streetgainer
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@mr-cryptopia, Well said. I've be trying to sound the alarm. The lure of thinking you can out trade the market is powerful. The reality is shocking!
Many here lie to themselves, they've traded away the majority, if not all their bitcoin, now they pray for a chance at $2000 sell orders again.
For those who want to return to sanity, here is a simple but effective strategy, average into your positions, we all know Bitcoin goes up and down and has trends with supports and resistances, that's simple! If you believe Bitcoin has the potential to bring wealth, well then you want to own and keep it right? Good, there's a premise you can start with. Your goal should be to obtain as many as you can by simply dollar cost averaging in on major dips. The performance on that alone beats trying to trade (sell tops/ buy bottoms) the market, by a long shot!
ChartmanChris
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@streetgainer, I totally agree!
that is why it is good to understand trading, learn to trade, understand the mechanics of it, but only so you actually DONT TRADE -sound weird?
I have eroded 15 if not 20 percent of my portfolio in the last 3 months trying to act like a trader. while in reality, the better strategy is to do what a warren buffet would do.
try and get a really good understanding of the niche, technology, the teams, the companies, the evaluation. look for undervalued assets with a good vision, a product, and good management.that is difficult in crypto and limits your choices . GOOD!
maybe in crypto, it also makes sense to still risk well-chosen ico´s as the time for that is only now. it will be over soon.but that is a highly speculativ play.
finding and doing research on opportunities is a better allocation of time and energy than trying to trade in an out.
I also noticed that many folks suddenly got interested in trading (and while that is not necessarily a bad thing, it felt like people were trying to learn to control this situation and i also did that)
. but the money is not in short-term swings. it will make you loose so much time, nerves and probably money in the end it would have been better to learn to WAIT. and to find good buying opportunities that will multiply down the line.
for example .Evaluating a Cardano at 6 times below its ath which could one day easily reach an ethereum its major competitor with an ath market cap of 160bill, could be a better better investment. i am not shilling ADA its just an example,
but honestly,now after my last loss on fr night,I have taken pen and paper and started writing down everything about all the coins i am eying to buy.
You need to understand this technology and then you can make good decisions on what will make you a profit.
swing trading is only for a very select few. we can learn from them but don´t think what you learn from them is how to trade.
its actually:
NOT TO TRADE!
I have started a channel on twitter only as a diary of my thought process as it can feel intellectually lonely out in this space and if you care to join me please head over and add your ideas and lets team up in this journey and get smarter and more resilient together, by learning to make smarter choices and avoiding at all cost the repetition of past mis-thinkings that led to huge losses.
Based on pattern recognition I would say history is repeating itself see in the purple circles the same pull back on last 6K drop. I just posted an idea on this feel free to have a read
karlkrawall
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@Cash-is-King, only question to me is how deep BTC will drop for the reversal. Especially watching the $6000 support will be quite interesting.
MuratBenli
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@Cash-is-King, good guess, I ve found the same result
zmarks4
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Hey poopcannon just wanted to let you know that I absolutely understand how and why you post in the way you do. You lay down potential scenarious and what it means if each transpires. Totally appreciate your TA because it helps me confirm my own TA or forces me to look at the charts from another perspective. You really have been accurate. Don't listen to the haters. They want a spoonfeed
venturetrade
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@zmarks4, he is awesome nobody ever argues with that he got his style going.
I am writing this here because I think some others feel that way too but may not realise until its too late.
Even some very good traders have failed and lost over and over in the last weeks!
so I am going back to listening to what Warren Buffet said: Actively trading in stocks will lose 90 percent of people money!
Magic knows this and he is a serious trader, he knows how to stop out and go in and is making money. i guess.
but I assume many here have lost huge portions of their portfolio by getting out and getting back in which you would not have lost if you had just held patiently, sat back with a nice chicka on your lap and a tequila watching the sunrise.
I hope all of you don´t misunderstand me. I am sharing this honestly not bragging about my huge gains but showing that i have engaged in portfolio erosion by trying to trade this market. we tend to loose the longterm perspective this way and can get hurt! i will continue to read about trading and learn to read indicators, read candles, i love it, but will use it more to find good bargains for "stocks" or coins that i want to keep for a minimum of 3-5 years. and thats how you get rich. thats how i got quite well off with btc in the first place.
So this was really long , i apologize but i hope this helps someone to reevaluate his mission and goals and his skillsets!
thank you magic for your sound and free advice and i hope you don´t misunderstand this i really respect your work but i see its limitations even for the skilled person but it can be really dangerous for amateurs, good luck. peace health, prosperity to you all mrcryptopia ;_)