Rising wedge breakdown + retest

29 Dis 2017

It couldn't be more obvious. But sometimes the composite man will make it seem obvious just to rekt everyone later, so trade carefully.

With the current market status (a parabollic move that got halted with CME futures launch) and all the uncertainity going down seems the only path forward.

The rising wedge was a text book one.

• Gets built straight from the bottom of a sharp move down
  
• Only goes as high as 61.8% retracement of the move down
  
• Descending volume on wedge
  
• Increasing volume on breakdown
  
• Breakdown at 70% of the complete structure
  

Other technichals supporting the move down:

• 3d, 6h and 1h Macd bearish crossover
  
• 4h, 6h and 1d StochRSI bearish crossover
  
• RSI in every meaningful TF is reseted and with room to go down
  
• High TF's head and shoulders
  
• Inability to bounce clearly
  

And last but not least lets recapitulate bear fundamentals:

• Tether printing machine
  
• Bitfinex wash trading machine
  
• Korea crackdown on bitcoin
  
• Institutional investors lack of interest in bitcoin regulated derivatives
  
• High transaction fees (median fee per tx reached and ATH over $30)
  

7 Jan 2018

Nota

That was really close to be stopped.
I took profit of what seems a bull trap to increase my short size above 16k.
My stop still remains over 17k.

8 Jan 2018

Nota

Covered here (14300) what i added above 16k. Posting chart soon.

8 Jan 2018

Nota

For those that think my bearishness makes me blind, this is for you:
tradingview.com/chat/m/10aff0bec0534fcf80a3f19330e9995d/ (long 13800 x20 leverage 13200 liquidation)
Covered with over 100% profit :joy: I'm a crazy motherfucker hahahahahahaha
Okay now lets think about reloading shorts. The chart is coming but doing so many things at the same time.

8 Jan 2018

Nota

Sorry for the massive amount of lines. i will clean it before publishing it as an idea, but they were needed to build the chart. I wont publish it as an idea until we break down. but this is the new wedge and the new targets.

9 Jan 2018

Nota

The wedge keeps HODLING. He knows.

Breakdown will eventually happen it is just too soon.

10 Jan 2018

Nota

It seems bitcoin wanted so bad to break down. First 4h close below the wedge just happened. Still hodling the original short but not going to add in this breakdown yet. will do it after a succesful retest if there is any.

10 Jan 2018

Nota

The retest would be this. But im not opening more shorts yet, i still feel this was just a fakeout in low tfs and Daily Will close inside the wedge again

11 Jan 2018

Nota

As expected the daily closed again inside the wedge

Let's see what happens in the next hours. But i bet we will confirm the fakeout and proceed to the last phase of the bitcoin "back to normal" bull trap.

12 Jan 2018

Nota

At this point i dont think we are going to have any bounce prior 10k

12 Jan 2018

Nota

And this would be a potential playout

13 Jan 2018

Nota

Bitcoin trying to breakup.
Let's see if we find a bit of volume soon

13 Jan 2018

Nota

13 Jan 2018

Nota

And here came a bit of volume.

15 Jan 2018

Nota

Most bearish scenario i can dream of

16 Jan 2018

Nota

I keep riding this, but going to probably keep my movements updated in here

16 Jan 2018

Nota

Wedge target 1, REACHED

18 Jan 2018

Nota

20 Jan 2018

Nota

Already in nice short are.

21 Jan 2018

Nota

There might be another push up to the breakdown level that wasn't reached yesterday night.
I have some short orders in the higher end of the short area ready to get filled if there is a wave up left.

2 Feb 2018

Nota

Target 2 reached

I'm closing around here for now.

15 Feb 2018

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

All targets reached and price bounced.
Looking for new shorts in the 10.9k-12.4k