Bitcoin so called H&S will never happen! Trading updates!
There are 2 options here, at this resistance level. I have a similar feeling that i had when it was trading between the 8K and 9K. Obviously i was wrong than but when it broke out i had no problems turning long because. The same could be happening now, that i am to bearish and stubborn :). But difference now is, we are 3000 points higher, hesitation to break out is much higher. Those few strange big drops at Bitstamp. I watched the orders yesterday for a while at the 11550/11600 range. There just were allot of big sell orders at those levels. Many orders of 100 and 200 BTC with steps of only $10 between them. Each time it would drop below the 11550 again and turn up later on, again you would see big sell orders of 100 and 200 BTC. So i am almost convinced that it's a distribution fase. Probably the same people who did not let it drop below the 11.100 a few days ago (when i was convinced it would go to 10.800).
Only problem is, who are these people. The biggest stakeholders of Bitcoin giving up and cashing out while they still can at high prices? That's a bit far fetched but not impossible because the whole market is only looking up lately and are extremely bullish so it would be the ideal moment to cash out their massive amounts without crashing the price themselves. Or are these just some big traders, those F....ng hedge funds, who raped the stock market for many years and have increased in numbers allot lately in the crypto market. Hedge funds just want to get money from (small) traders, they don't want to destroy this easy market. So if it's them, than it does not mean we will see massive crash to 1000 or whatever. If it's the stakeholders cashing out, than BTC is just f...cked and it will never recover. So we could still get above the 11.700 and around the 12K (forced short covering) but i just cant see it getting above the 13K again, never ever if you ask me.
In the most paranoid version :) it would be almost certain that we brake the 11.700 and 12K because we can all guess of course, those levels there will be a massive amount of short positions that will (be forced to) close (and therefore become buy orders).
You can see my 4 options that can happen, don't take it to seriously, it's just because it's impossible to say if we start the drop from here or a few hundred points higher up till the 12.500/12.800. I don't think we can make it that far, but who knows. I think the people have to accept that we have already passed the high point of the crypto hype were people just buy blindly.
Smart or more experienced traders have cut their losses, locked in profit in time or even profited from the drop of 20K. But the amateurs that jumped in from december/januari have only lost money and probably all of them sold on the lows in panic. Those days that we saw 100% to 1000% gains within a day or a week, have not happened anymore. Because when the market cap gets higher it gets much more difficult to realize that because ALLOT more money is needed to achieve that. Therefore the advertisement engine the crypto market had, the V12 supercharched twin turbo engine has turned into a V6 diesel engine (I just made that up while i am writing this :) LOL).
My followers now i went short around 11.540 (third attempt) and have cut losses or locked in a small profit just to do the same again untill we DO make that drop. That strategy stays the same! New readers/followers, if you find this interesting you would be smart to read up my history, at least a few previous analysis to be up to date about everything and my strategies. You will find them quite unique, informational and maybe even clarifying
Only problem is, who are these people. The biggest stakeholders of Bitcoin giving up and cashing out while they still can at high prices? That's a bit far fetched but not impossible because the whole market is only looking up lately and are extremely bullish so it would be the ideal moment to cash out their massive amounts without crashing the price themselves. Or are these just some big traders, those F....ng hedge funds, who raped the stock market for many years and have increased in numbers allot lately in the crypto market. Hedge funds just want to get money from (small) traders, they don't want to destroy this easy market. So if it's them, than it does not mean we will see massive crash to 1000 or whatever. If it's the stakeholders cashing out, than BTC is just f...cked and it will never recover. So we could still get above the 11.700 and around the 12K (forced short covering) but i just cant see it getting above the 13K again, never ever if you ask me.
In the most paranoid version :) it would be almost certain that we brake the 11.700 and 12K because we can all guess of course, those levels there will be a massive amount of short positions that will (be forced to) close (and therefore become buy orders).
You can see my 4 options that can happen, don't take it to seriously, it's just because it's impossible to say if we start the drop from here or a few hundred points higher up till the 12.500/12.800. I don't think we can make it that far, but who knows. I think the people have to accept that we have already passed the high point of the crypto hype were people just buy blindly.
Smart or more experienced traders have cut their losses, locked in profit in time or even profited from the drop of 20K. But the amateurs that jumped in from december/januari have only lost money and probably all of them sold on the lows in panic. Those days that we saw 100% to 1000% gains within a day or a week, have not happened anymore. Because when the market cap gets higher it gets much more difficult to realize that because ALLOT more money is needed to achieve that. Therefore the advertisement engine the crypto market had, the V12 supercharched twin turbo engine has turned into a V6 diesel engine (I just made that up while i am writing this :) LOL).
My followers now i went short around 11.540 (third attempt) and have cut losses or locked in a small profit just to do the same again untill we DO make that drop. That strategy stays the same! New readers/followers, if you find this interesting you would be smart to read up my history, at least a few previous analysis to be up to date about everything and my strategies. You will find them quite unique, informational and maybe even clarifying
Nota
Lesson, on the 1min chart you will see many different bear flags, here you can see 2 forming from the same wave down. The first one you can see clearly, no strength at all to get the C wave above the A, difficult to predict upfront of course, but when it drops below the support line it's almost a guarantee it will make another drop. Now the second does show the C getting above the A, it shows a small sign of strength. But it could also mean that traders who short these patterns are just waiting for it to get higher and get a better price. With the first one, because the drop was quite big and fast, it could also be panic selling. With Bitcoin, the second one is always tricky, the last month i have seen many of these flags just being turned into a bottom. When the flag becomes to big/wide, so if it takes to long, than it's 75% sure it will go up again, i dont mean it will make new highs, but it could, but they will delay the drop and a big chance they will get the people who shorted it out of the trade and by doing that they take their money of course.
Nota
As i was writing the previous one, it had dropped out already (to my big surprise because the last couple of days most of these bear flags got manipulated the hell out of them). Anyway :) the target is around the green area, it already got very close, but it't always smart to close your positions in at least 2 different orders. I do it most of the at 70%, 80%, 90% and 100% of the target. Greed is never good!Nota
Been a while since i have heared/read about Tether. Something everybody knows when BTC is crashing down, but everybody forgets when we are making new highs.coindesk.com/big-fail-tether-might-still-cryptos-ticking-time-bomb/
Nota
Now we can see, the drop is being stopped. I did not watch it, but there was a 450 BTC buy order at 12250, was probably completely sold in to. Clear example again of wash trading. Since we have not dropped further, i would have to say (i dont want to but have to :) ) that we will go sideways from here and probably slowly up again. I will close half of my short position if it gets above that red area. Nota
This one :)Nota
For the second half i have placed my stop around that red area. It's difficult to find right trend lines. The one i drew here, seems legit. Also has some characteristics of an H&S. Ideally it does not get above the 11350. Nota
And another strange move 150 point spike down, 11.180 is a clear support levelNota
Nota
Bring out the champagne :) i am just surprised that this second drop just happened :). The target of that second (bigger bear flag has already been reached. I have closed another part of my short position, which i will add again after it has made a small correction again.I think it's safe to say now, that's this was all a plan of some players. As i mentioned in the beginning, those big sell orders get bought at the highs between 11550 and 11600. I was not even able to watch all the action the last few days, so i have probably missed out allot of that massive build up of short positions. Lesson learned again about how manipulated market work. I don't think they have put all this effort in just for a drop of 800 points. But we know what my longer term view is.
For now it's safe to say, those trend lines i drew there, were perfect. How beautifully it stayed below the 11300
Nota
I think the drop is done for now, maybe a little bit more. I think it will cool down now. Later today we will probably get another chance to get in again. Best scenario would be around 11.100. I have 25% of my position left, i have lowered my stop to 10975. I will probably start to build up a bi short position again between the 11050 and 11.250Nota
I see a similar move of the bear flag from earlier today, no real bounce. So chances have increased that we WILL make another drop.Nota
For now, this was my last update. I have been putting many many hours into keeping everyone up to date with trades and information/education. The fact that i don't use the fancy words like some analysts here, my views/likes/followers fall behind. I keep repeating myself, my followers know what little effort i expect in return so i dont even want to repeat that. I even missed out on a trade opportunity because i was writing something for you guys. So besides time it's even costing me money. Good luck and if i see some change, you will see me returnNota
:)
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Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.