BTC weakness and update

This is my untouched chart since BTC was 15k. The cup and handle played out and this momentum trend line was been mostly respected since Oct 23rd. I expect at least a test of the purple line, my first downside target that is the dotted red has already been reached. A more likely flush out zone is the 20EMA which is the red line I drew the arrow to. In the coming days/weeks this line will slowly come to current price action. This coincides with the base of the two candles I highlighted in the red rectangle. To me this area makes the most sense as a base for this draw down on a weekly time-frame.

-I expect flushes below this on dailies/wicks
-A boring summer now with less volatility until maybe end of August
-A longer cycle with a higher cycle high