BTCUSD when to out?

These scenarios that could happen
1. Go up with the first green arrow
2. Go with the blue arrow and when MA360 cross the blue line go up with the second green arrow
3. One level down and then follow up at the end of the blue arrow
4. More levels down
I think 2 or 3 may be more likely

Komen:

It is testing scenario no.1 line too much
That red line also could be drawn

Komen:

It tried to pass MA360 a little early, two candles early, where I assumed it could not pass and failed