Falling to 12-9k would help the wave count

10 Jul 2022

Overall sentiment is still bearish across markets.

Price rejected at the 200W MA.
This pivot forms our A-C line.
A-C line confirms our bear flag/ channel/ wedge as it is parallel to the 0-B line.
B-D line will give confirmation.

Volume backing off.
Volume mimics the previous flag/ sideways correction

All things being equal/ proportional, flag target projection lands price in the 9-12k zone.


Some may be inclined to think we're already at the bottom because of the EW count below:

I would say the Intermediate Wave B is a WXYXZ correction.
The Z leg has an unnaturally short extension, however, this is the last pivot before the channel is broken so I think it is valid.
Why this is important is because it changes where Intermediate Wave C begins, in turn changing where Minor Wave 1 of Wave C begins.
This is important if that changes where wave 2 is drawn (refer again to the second chart).

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It is important to remember EW is highly subjective.
I welcome any critique in the comments below.

10 Jul 2022

Nota

Closeup of bear flag

12 Jul 2022

Nota

Price is currently touching the lower line of our bear flag at point D.

Here's another angle of PA with fib levels.
As you can see price has made major pivots at different levels.
If 0.382 holds, this will confirm the 0-B line and further validate our ABCDE projection.
If price moves accordingly, look for a short around 20.9k (adjust for how strong/weak BTC looks in the coming days).
Be careful of Stop Loss hunting near the downward (red) trendline.
Safe TP target would be the 300W MA, or 17.5k.

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Disclaimer: This is not trading advice.

12 Jul 2022

Nota

I find this interesting. Don't know if it signifies much, but the bar distance between points A-B and C-D are exact at 104 hours each.
0-A and B-C are very nearly exact as well.

13 Jul 2022

Nota

BTC broke through the bottom line of the bear flag.
ETH has broken far past and a day earlier.
While NASDAQ is still within the triangle, having broken out of the major downward trendline (white dashed line). Though it should be noted S&P has yet to break through theirs. As well, BTC and ETH are still well within their downward channel.

BTC having already broken below its bear flag (compared with NASDAQ's triangle) may be a result of weekend trading.
Price action for both corrections occurred within days of each other, as with many other markets.
Weekend trading may have accelerated the trend for BTC.
It is possible that BTC is leading this trend, and we can expect other markets to remain weak.
However, it is possible BTC overshot and will resume within the bear flag if NASDAQ finds support on this major trendline.
As S&P still remains in its downward channel, the fact that NASDAQ has broken out, which is 'technically bullish', doesn't have much weight.
However, BTC breaking below its bear flag is further bearish. It confirms weakness in an already bearish trend.
Volume remains to decrease for BTC throughout this sideways correction, which is another indication of weakness.
In terms of adjusting the entry for our short position at 20.9k based on BTC looking strong/weak in the coming day, this is a clear sign of weakness.

17 Jul 2022

Nota

Wave count is still in play.

Short position with SL expecting downward trendline to be broken.

Disclaimer: Bullish sentiment is on the rise. Risk of trade succeeding below 50%. RR 3.67

19 Jul 2022

Nota

The downward channel was broken as expected.


Just wanted to point to these cycles again.
Pivots within the flag have been equidistant so far,
and PA seems to be responding to the latest one.

PA tested the downward trendline and found Bullish support.
PA tested the upper line of the flag and found Bearish resistance.
Markets appear to still be indecisive.

4hr US OIL:

Price trending at the upper line of the downward channel.
Note BTCUSD trending at the upper line of the bear flag.
1M US OIL:

Mean Reversion Channel status: Overbought (weak)
Distance from mean: 43.43%