BTC/USD: Weekly Support Vulnerable; Additional Underperformance

3 Sep 2023

Against the US dollar, the price of Bitcoin wrapped up the week considerably off best levels, despite shaking hands with support on the weekly timeframe at $25,381 last week. The test of support, as I communicated in previous analysis, follows a rejection from weekly resistance overhead at $30,644. The key observation for me this week is the weekly support level at $25,381; rupturing this base unearths weekly support from $23,144, followed by another layer of support at $19,985. Technically speaking, the risk of further declines is possible above $25,381, considering the feeble buying so far. Assuming sellers do indeed make a push, this could also see the beginnings of an early trend reversal unfold if we nudge beneath the $24,750 low (the most recent higher low formed on 15 June).

You will note that on the daily timeframe, mid-week trading observed price connect with resistance at $27,221, a level accompanied by the widely watched 200-day simple moving average (often serving as dynamic support and resistance), currently at $27,559. The combination of this technical resistance was evidently sufficient for technical sellers to put in an appearance and cap buying off the weekly support highlighted above at $25,381. This—coupled with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recoiling from the lower side of the 50.00 centreline (negative momentum)—places a bold question mark on the weekly support this week and throws light on daily support at $24,262.

As we move to the H1 timeframe, $25,936 is a key short-term level. You will note that the level was breached in recent trading, potentially signalling a willingness to retest the mettle of weekly support at $25,381 and opening the door for short-term breakout selling opportunities. Interestingly, I also see limited support on the H1 chart until as far south as $24,286, indicating that price could tunnel through $25,381 in the following weeks.

10 Sep 2023

Nota

Against the US dollar, the price of Bitcoin wrapped up the week unmoved and shaped a doji indecision candle on the weekly timeframe. This marks the major cryptocurrency’s third successive doji indecision candle at support on the weekly chart from $25,381.

Given the lack of volatility over the last couple of weeks, much of the following analysis will echo thoughts presented in previous analysis (two paragraphs below):

The test of weekly support follows a rejection from weekly resistance overhead at $30,644. The key observation for me this week is the weekly support level at $25,381; rupturing this base unearths weekly support from $23,144, followed by another layer of support at $19,985. Technically speaking, the risk of further declines is possible above $25,381, considering the feeble buying so far. Assuming sellers do indeed make a push, this could also see the beginnings of an early trend reversal unfold if we nudge beneath the $24,750 low (the most recent higher low formed on 15 June).

You will note that on the daily timeframe, price recently connected with resistance at $27,221, a level accompanied by the widely watched 200-day simple moving average (often serving as dynamic support and resistance), currently at $27,613. The combination of this technical resistance was evidently sufficient for technical sellers to put in an appearance and cap buying off the weekly support highlighted above at $25,381. This—coupled with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recoiling from the lower side of the 50.00 centreline (negative momentum)—places a bold question mark on the weekly support this week and throws light on daily support at $24,262.

As we move to the H1 timeframe, $25,936 is a key short-term level. You will note that the level has withstood several upside attempts this month—one particularly stood out last week, reaching a high of $26,460. Sellers continuing to defend the H1 resistance signals a willingness to challenge the position of weekly support at $25,381. Interestingly, limited support is seen on the H1 chart until as far south as $24,286, indicating that price could eventually tunnel through $25,381 in the following weeks and present a bearish theme to work with.