Scenario update: Do we know what is happening yet?

27 Jul 2018

Bitcoin fell, and then it rose, so where are we going? In our last post (

) we discussed 4 scenarios we thought likely to happen:

1. Price moves down and we see a reactivation of a new bullish cycle somewhere in the support area . Here we can re-enter a long position if we get good signals
2. Price stagnates and allows some time to pass, reactivating the momentum for a next push up. Here too we can possibly re-enter a long, however the risk would be bigger (as we are farther away from our invalidation level than when price would move down first. The target remains the same)
3. We go up straight away in some kind of fomo run, in which case there is no safe entry for us, as we’re going up on exhausted momentum.
4. We break down violently. in which case we would have to reassess momentum before entering short.

Do we know what’s going on yet? Let’s look at the charts

DAILY



On the daily chart we’ve completely corrected yesterday candle, the candle hasn’t closed yet so let’s see how this plays out. The flat tenkan-sen is acting as a support, but will it last? As we said earlier (

), we’re likely to have some range-like behaviour between the support and resistance box. This will allow either scenario 1 or 2 (or a combination between the two) to play out. At the moment we don’t see any indication to believe otherwise.
Let us be very clear here, this is in no way the end of the bear market (as we see it): we’re looking for one more small push up to around 9000 and then down again. We’re looking to enter a position on that move if we get good entry signals in the blue support box. It is of course possible that Bitcoin is not strong enough and that we fail to hold the blue support box. In that case we look for scenario 4: wait for downward momentum to reset to enter the short. No fomo, not up, not down :)

Ichimoku hasn’t changed: we still see flat momentum and disequilibrium,
We don;t have a clear indication what is going to happen, we’ll have to let some time pass before we can see price or momentum choose a clear path.
Let’s see what the 2HR chart can tell us.

2HR



The 2HR is showing us the same as the Daily: consolidation. All ichimoku elements are together, in the kumo, with price. We’ll have to wait and see where this correction leads. We expect at least one more wave down, after which we’ll have to evaluate if we’re going up again to our target, or if we’re going down. At the moment we have no bearish cycles yet, but that of course may still come. Important levels to watch are around the 7600 area and around 7300. If we don't react from that zone but break through, the chances of our expected up move are basically gone.
There’s a long way to go still, so don’t worry. Speculating here (with leverage) will make you fish food for the the whales, so don’t. Let’s wait for the correction to play out and see where bitcoin feels like going the coming weeks.

28 Jul 2018

Nota

No direction in the market yet, looking for one more down wave at least before considering the up move viable to trade

28 Jul 2018

Nota