BITCOIN - Strong Support

10 Feb

Plenty of low time frame chop in this recent area.

We first had the "c'ya" upside shakeout (first red arrow) where volatility significantly increased to that of crash structure.

This was similar to the volatility that we saw in early February that led to a real crash.

But this smackdown became what I call an EC Exhaustion Climax. If we're using standard Wyckoff terms then this is "ST" or even "Spring."

This is where volatility increases to that of crash structure but does not make significant price discovery as it is met with strong buy pressure.

From there we had a very strong bounce, printing a series of high volatility pivots which still continues now (arrows).

Similar to the crash at the start of February, the increase in volatility will likely prove to be a defining moment in the trend.

And because the high volatility smackdown was met with such buoyancy of buy pressure, that low labelled "Strong support" should be a strong support structure.

That doesn't mean that we couldn't see a slightly lower low because below the low is where the higher liquidity is...

But the chance of significant bearish price discovery below 94.8K is now slim.

Most likely, the next bullish pivot will be similar to the previous 95.5K target in the previous (linked) thread; within or very near the next retracement Golden Window from $96.2 - 95.6K.

But as I said, it could make another slightly lower low below $94.8.

That is the less likely outcome but it is certainly on the table.

The described high volatility movements described signal that this area offers a great buy opportunity in Bitcoin and also other crypto coins / assets in deep value technical positions not in "willy nilly" buying thatcan lead to opportunity loss.

If Bitcoin gets back to these areas I will set up a high leverage trade using liquidation point as stop loss 🧐.

Not advice

10 Feb

Nota

If you like this type of content and would like to see more then hit the BOOST.

If hardly anyone BOOSTs then I get bored and lose the urge to donate to the free sections.

If anyone has questions about the method I am using then do feel free to ask ✨.

Thanks for the support - it is appreciated, and good luck in your trades 👍.

11 Feb

Nota

Quite a few of the altcoins that I monitor are breaking out in this area - just a heads up.

And this is because the critical low that I described is now in.

So at some point Bitcoin will likely pull the market back with a 0.618 retracement as described.

But this market is now in GO mode for the strongest coins.

11 Feb

Nota

BTC

Since the "c'ya" upside shakeout pattern, we've seen a sudden increase in volatility with a fast dump down that rebounded into a strong bounce up.

Bitcoin recently made a slightly higher high through printing an ascending broadening wedge.

That's a bearish fractal which signals that the impetus of the bounce is close to done.

The slightly higher high taps the higher liquidity above resistance.

And so these peaks may be considered to be Wyckoff events; BC Buying Climax and UT UpThrust.

Obviously we've seen no bearish action yet so this might grind higher and then adjustment will be required, but this looks likely to be as described.

With liquidity tapped and a clear 5 waves in the ascending broadening wedge, this bounce may be all but done.

So this is another minor critical area here.

It will be interesting to see if the high volatility continues into the next wave.

If there is less volatility then this may only slump to print a retracement Golden Window with pivots adjusted for slightly higher high pivot.

Or if its high volatility that we may get a re-test of the low and perhaps even a flash dump driving below "Strong Support."

Any coins / crypto stocks that appear to be printing bull trap shakeout patterns may be setting up for a wave down.

What type of wave down of course depends on the strength of the coin.

For stronger coins it may be a minor and corrective wave down, for weaker coins it may be a continuing downtrend 🧐.

11 Feb

Nota

BTC

Its always nice when Bitcoin has the courtesy to print around my drawings 😅.



Lets see how this develops 👀.

11 Feb

Nota

Bitcoin has moved exactly as described back to the 0.618 retracement.

And so the slightly higher high; expanding broadening wedge was a liquidity tapping Wyckoff UT UpThrust.



But here the critical ratio of balance may be with TOTAL.

TOTAL just hit the 0.618 and it is more bullish than Bitcoin in this area.

So this might just be the critical ratio to capture a bullish pivot.

Lets see... 👀

12 Feb

Nota

Somewhat late with this update to the free section but i'll post it so anyone can read my workings:



BTC
CPI came in "hotter" than expected and the markets have reacted with dollar and bond yields (and metals 🤔) spiking upward, while everything else in risk on markets took a hit 👀.



For Bitcoin the post CPI reaction has provided a catalyst of volatility to push down below "Strong Support"

In terms of an event aligning to create a technical consequence, you really couldn't make it up 😅...

Because I did say that since we had seen such buoyancy of buy pressure to print the "strong support" low, that it would take high volatility for market makers to be able push down and tap the higher liquidity below "strong support" low.

And that is exactly what the post CPI volatility has provided ❕

Notice that we now have 2 layers of Wyckoff; slightly lower lows; both in mid and low time frames.

If I was using the standard schematic, theses would be labelled "ST - Secondary Test."

These are both where market makers are tapping liquidity and then pivoting back...

Due to this double layering of lower lows, the area below Strong Support should be of very high liquidity.

...

From UT - UpThrust we have a 1:0.618 Golden Window 3 wave downside correction.

The 1:0.618 Golden Window + overshoot to 0.786 is a weak extension band. It signals downside weakness in the trend.

And this of course can also be realised from the perspective of a bear trap shakeout pattern; which is that the third wave will be shorter to print the exhaustion wave trap; EC - Exhaustion Climax; which taps into higher liquidity only to spring back in the opposite direction.

This completes a very high volatility double stab down; double EC Exhaustion Climax.

It is a manoeuvre that we see again and again; it is a market maker favourite...

And we have seen this double stab down already in higher time frame within this long correction since December. It was a somewhat different context; but the same liquidity trap.



In the current area; with so many events creating high liquidity, there is a very high probability that this is a major low printing.

TLDR: there should be strong impetus to the upside here 🧐.

12 Feb

Nota

Boom 💥‼️.

There's that bullish impetus from the shakeout below "Strong Support" - very buoyant 😅🚀.

12 Feb

Nota

GG.

12 Feb

Nota

If you enjoyed this perfectly executed dip buy with depth TA, then show your support by hitting the BOOST and leave a comment if you like ✨.

13 Feb

Nota

Once we get to 30 BOOSTs i'll post another idea.

We already moved on from this to the next idea btw 😏...

7 hari lalu

Nota

It looks like we may be heading into another correction here.

I can take the time to make a new thread with a technical write up, but it doesn't look like there is much interest here...

Unlike youtube, I dont get the stats for views, but its obvious that plenty who view my pages dont bother to BOOST my threads.

So this is somewhat a little rebellion against that.

Because it should be clear that I'm making great profit in my trades and I also have other chart work away from free websites like this.

So I dont need to publish content here.

Anyhow there lots of quantity publishers here - perhaps they know the answers with their 500 posts per day 😅.

Sometimes I wonder how they have any time to actually study the chart 🤔💭...

7 hari lalu

Nota

Perhaps I will just get on and post threads again without "going on strike" but this is a very lucrative area and I can see that most of this website can't really read a chart.

7 hari lalu

Nota

But they can decorate charts...

There are some fantastic chart decorators here 😅

7 hari lalu

Nota

Take a look across TradingView right now and see that no-one has a clue what just happened in the last few hours.

Its all just moon high time frame, bullish short term 😅.

You've just gotta stop being "chicken little" and see the bigger bull picture - thats what they're telling you right?

And take a look now - nothing happening, what am I on about?

Its just calm waters right ?

...

I was bullish in this thread, but thats how dynamic this market is.

Btw this is regarding the market as a whole, so Bitcoin is always least affected when anything bearish happens.

So if you're high time frame Bitcoin hodler, thats fine, go back to sleep - you're doing great ✨.

I'll tell you in text rather than doing the write up with charts - I'm largely in cash and Bitcoin here having sold many altcoin positions today - XRP and ADA had some nice profits but now its time to own BTC / USDC / GBP and see how this plays out.

You have to have eyes to see it and that comes only from doing the work.

The point is that there are no eyes on TradingView.

Sure there are Bitcoin haters and they're right every time there's a dump because they're always bearish.

And everyone else thinks its up only from here because Bob and cycles blah blah and they believe in Altseason 😅.

I'll make a video on this at some point as its actually easier but its been a lot of work in this area and i'm done for now.

TLDR: Altcoins may dump, Bitcoin may sneeze - we'll see 👍