For all the "Bitcoin will follow gold" crowd...
This chart tells a very different story.
Every time we’ve seen GLD/SPX rally sharply, BTC/SPX has underperformed for months afterward.
📉 See the shaded red zones – they highlight periods when:
We're in another one of those zones right now.
Unless you’ve got a strong reason why "this time is different," the base case is clear:
BTC/SPX likely underperforms for another 3–6 months.
If you're positioning long BTC expecting it to mimic gold's run, be aware — that hasn't played out well historically.
🧭 Trade Idea:
This chart tells a very different story.
Every time we’ve seen GLD/SPX rally sharply, BTC/SPX has underperformed for months afterward.
📉 See the shaded red zones – they highlight periods when:
- GLD/SPX (gold line) made strong relative moves,
- BTC/SPX (aqua line) lagged or outright dropped.
We're in another one of those zones right now.
Unless you’ve got a strong reason why "this time is different," the base case is clear:
BTC/SPX likely underperforms for another 3–6 months.
If you're positioning long BTC expecting it to mimic gold's run, be aware — that hasn't played out well historically.
🧭 Trade Idea:
- Patience: Don't rush the BTC long. Let the GLD/SPX spike play out.
- Timeframe: Revisit BTC/SPX for potential re-entry mid-to-late 2025.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.