Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it. Looking at the daily chart, you can see that BTC has rallied from the lows of late June, but don't get too excited. BTC still remains in a technically weak state. If you'll notice, the lows of late June actually printed a lower low on the chart, which proves to us that Bitcoin remains in a technical downtrend. Additionally, the current rally has not surpassed the high from 6/18, so it hasn't even formed a short term higher high. Therefore, we could still turn right back to the downside and aim for an even deeper lower low, in this major leg down that originated on 5/6. Such a move would be in line with the general trading direction that I outlined with arrows, back in May. With that said, I do still believe that there is a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to fall, particularly toward the $5,000 level where the black trendline is.
As you can see, BTC is closing in on major overhead resistance. The 50 EMA (in orange,) which has been highly resistive in the recent past, is just above, and right above that is the bottom of the triangle. So, there doesn't appear to be much short term upside left for BTC. Personally, I am more inclined to short into this strength, with a tight stop just above the bottom of the triangle. If BTC falls from here, my short will be profitable. If it rises into the triangle, and closes inside of it, I will be stopped out for a small loss. That is a trade that I'm willing to take. knowing that the 50 EMA and the bottom of the triangle are likely to act as a brick wall for BTC. However, I will probably wait to see how today's candle closes. If BTC reaches higher, then the probability of a test of the bottom of the triangle will increase. So, the safest approach would be to wait for a more bearish candle to emerge — particularly, a bearish close below yesterday's low, or a reversal close from the 50 EMA or the bottom of the triangle.
Looking at the MACD, you can see that the momentum has been rising, but it appears to be weakening as it approaches the zero line. The bulls appear to be losing steam, as we approach the aforementioned overhead resistance. Overall, look for the market to find resistance in the near future, and continue it's descent toward $5,000.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
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