BTCUSD - New heavens ?
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I said 2 things earlier but I changed my mind a bit
- the first thing was that I wanted to wait on Monday to do a new post because of the geopolitical situation and the halving, what happened last night convinced me that the floor was here (of course I can be 100% wrong)
- second thing is that from my last post, I said we could chill some months because nothing would happen, it still can be true but the situation looks familiar and this rebound just before the halving is kinda interesting, also summer is only in 2 months.
So, for the little time frame, we are sitting under the 1H 200MA which is about to likely be break (or maybe is already it took me times to write this)
I'm saying this situation looks familiar because the floor at the 0.786 fib which has been made during the past month is very similar to the one from Jan 2021 to June 2021(maybe not on the daily but if you zoom in you'll see it maybe)
You can note the big uptrend going on after this, not saying that we will see the same but from that pattern recognition, and knowing that it works well here, I think we're heading to the new ATH : 100K, a big psychological resistance + a line resistance made from the past highs in 2021
Also this is interesting to notice that this new floor is at the past first ATH made in March 2021
Till this new ATH I don't really see any other paths that could happen (or maybe I refuse to see them, also I don't know about the time it will make)
But then, here are the 2 scenarios I drew :
- Pink : We go super fast too 125k, 20% retrace rule to 100K while chilling during the summer and we go back to new highs from fall 2024/January 2025
- Green : We go a bit slower doing a retrace of 20% at 100 and 125K (or, in this scenario, not doing at retrace at 125K is possible)
I think those 125K and 100K are very important levels (that still can be drilled tho) for several reasons, the most important one is about the patterns BTC did the past cycles.
Concerning this pattern, it is very likely that we are going to go up till the beginning of Summer, then we might see some months of sunny holidays to retrace and we will be back for 1 year of this famous bull run that might start mid fall 2024/early January 2025
Cheers good luck,
- the first thing was that I wanted to wait on Monday to do a new post because of the geopolitical situation and the halving, what happened last night convinced me that the floor was here (of course I can be 100% wrong)
- second thing is that from my last post, I said we could chill some months because nothing would happen, it still can be true but the situation looks familiar and this rebound just before the halving is kinda interesting, also summer is only in 2 months.
So, for the little time frame, we are sitting under the 1H 200MA which is about to likely be break (or maybe is already it took me times to write this)
I'm saying this situation looks familiar because the floor at the 0.786 fib which has been made during the past month is very similar to the one from Jan 2021 to June 2021(maybe not on the daily but if you zoom in you'll see it maybe)
You can note the big uptrend going on after this, not saying that we will see the same but from that pattern recognition, and knowing that it works well here, I think we're heading to the new ATH : 100K, a big psychological resistance + a line resistance made from the past highs in 2021
Also this is interesting to notice that this new floor is at the past first ATH made in March 2021
Till this new ATH I don't really see any other paths that could happen (or maybe I refuse to see them, also I don't know about the time it will make)
But then, here are the 2 scenarios I drew :
- Pink : We go super fast too 125k, 20% retrace rule to 100K while chilling during the summer and we go back to new highs from fall 2024/January 2025
- Green : We go a bit slower doing a retrace of 20% at 100 and 125K (or, in this scenario, not doing at retrace at 125K is possible)
I think those 125K and 100K are very important levels (that still can be drilled tho) for several reasons, the most important one is about the patterns BTC did the past cycles.
Concerning this pattern, it is very likely that we are going to go up till the beginning of Summer, then we might see some months of sunny holidays to retrace and we will be back for 1 year of this famous bull run that might start mid fall 2024/early January 2025
Cheers good luck,
Nota
We are now at 0.5 fib from the last downward move, 100MA on the 4H and the 200 ma on the same timeframe is around 67K, if BTC manages to break this, chances increase for this idea to be valid. If not we still can see lower lows
Nota
So as warned in my last comment, BTC got rejected from 200 MA 4H around 67k2 What now ?
0.5 fib of this move up a bit under 64k5, also 200 MA 1H, I will refill here
if this level breaks we can see big chances to retest 60k, and even daily 100 MA that is now at 58k
if this also breaks big chances for 50k <3
Note that BTC and ETH ETFs at Hong Kong will be available next week on the 30th April 2024, first ETF for BTC in USA started the 10th January 2024 and you know what happened next
Cheers
Nota
Nota
Didn update this idea after the break of daily 100MA because was thinking about a fake out but should have post itanyway, we are back on track and this idea is still valid
(this low is a bottom of a channel but was hoping for a fib or something more relevant)
Cheers
Nota
We broke the channel we were in since early April,i don't think its a fake one this time so next fibs (not all displayed on this chart) are 66k3
73k1
80k1
97k6
Cheers
Nota
comfortable for bulls if we can stay above 62kNota
I dont think BTC can go under 66K anymore
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