BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 127)

Yesterday we looked at the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart and I expected that to provide the support needed to break through the downtrend line that started on 5/5. We did end up breaking the trend line and now I expect a sustained rally for the next 1-2 weeks.

We have a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s for the following time periods: 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, and 6h.

The EMA’s are posturing for a crossover on the 12 hour chart and we are currently testing the 26 EMA on the daily chart for resistance. If we range in between the 12 & 26 EMA’s on the daily chart before getting a crossover then a strong rally would be expected to follow.

syot kilat

The 50 period MA is starting to posture upwards on the 4 hour chart and indicates that a crossover with the 200 period MA is likely in the near future.

syot kilat

We just got a tweezer top on the 4 hour chart combined with a bearish spinning top. That won’t be nearly as powerful as the tweezer on the weekly chart but it could be an indication that this current rally has come to an end.

syot kilat

If we are unable to rally past $6,800 resistance over the next couple days and we create a lower low below $6,275 then I will likely be opening a short immediately.

In the post from yesterday I was expecting a bounce to $7,275 and I still feel good about that projection. Nevertheless I am sitting on my hands and waiting for further development. I remain firmly bearish for the rest of 2018 and would need a perfected setup in order to take on a bullish entry in this market (such as buying LTC at $50).

The Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart shows the next levels of resistance at $7,879 (Kijun-Sen) and $8,094 (Cloud retest). If we do rally back to those prices then I would be viewing it as a high probability short and opening a large position.

syot kilat

Inexperienced traders will be running around like a chicken with it’s head cut off in this market. Do not let that happen to you. Have a plan, then patiently execute it with confidence. Have a backup plan and always be looking at the market from both sides. If you are feeling emotional then take a break and use smaller position sizing next time.

If you want to open a long right now, then why didn’t you do it at $5,800 - $6,000? It's because you don't have enough confidence in your position and are following instead of preparing. If you want to open a short right now I would recommend waiting patiently because this bounce still has plenty of room to go.

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