BTC Sell Strategy for Long Term Positions

13 Nov

BTCUSD IBIT


This post details how I plan to sell into the FOMO or take profit into the pumps and bubbles.

The overall Selling Strategy has 4 parts.

1. TWAP Selling (Time Weighted Average Price)- means you sell over a defined period of time. (30%)

2. Price Level Selling- you sell at specific price levels. (40%)

3. Event Discretionary Selling- you sell based on TA, FA, news catalysts (30%)

4. Event Stop Loss Selling- you sell to protect your remaining capital.

Step 1 to Step 3 can occur simultaneously.

There are reasons to sell based on Time, Price and Event. I distribute the % allocated to each category based on gut feeling of accuracy in catching the top.

Use Fixed Range Volume Profile to find Whale accumulation levels.

June 2022 to March 2023 is 16.7k.

April 2023 to Oct 2023 is 27K

Dec 2023 to Feb 2024 is 42.7k

Mar 2024 to Nov 2024 is 63.3k


Whale Sell Levels have a confluence of targets around 125k to 135k. The most recent accumulation levels of 42.7k in Q1 2024 and 63.3k in Q2/Q3 2024 are the most important because the whales there are the least likely to have sold. The accumulation prior to that have had more opportunities to sell into the most recent pumps. The second major resistance area of confluence is around 200k.

Market Cap key levels are 2T, 3T, 5T

100k

150k

250k

Big Round number levels are

100k

200k

Elliot Wave 5 targets:

W5 1.27 extension is 125k

W5 1.38 extension is 131k

W5 1.61 extension is 145k

W5 2.0 extension is 167k

There is heavy confluence of targets at 125k to 135k and 145k to 150k.

My trigger for TWAP selling will be when price goes above 110k. The duration of TWAP will be until mid April 2025. That aligns with the seasonality of the bullish Q1 from Feb to mid April. Take 30% of the initial position size and divided it by number of trading days until 4/15/2024 to get the daily TWAP selling position size.

Event Stop Loss Selling will be based on chart pattern, price action and breaking under the 10W SMA.

Step 1: TWAP Selling: price > 110k. DCA out until 4/15/2025 (30% of initial position size)

Step 2: Price Level Selling: 105k, 110k, 115k, 120k, 125k, 130k, 135k (40% of initial position size)

Step 3: Event Discretionary Selling: will be based on TA, FA, news catalysts. (30% of initial position size)

Step 4: Stop Loss Selling: (% whatever is remaining)

1 day price < 10W MA

Livermore 1D reversal candle

1D M.S. break down

Size of down red candle is larger than up green candles in the uptrend, for weekly and daily candles.

Click the link in my signature for more detailed trade strategies.