Singkat

Bitcoin we have a problem! BTCUSD 1H

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Bitcoin... we have a decision.

Chase the break or is it fake?

Watching the 15min we have breakout potential the question is, is all the potential gone?

Were we just flushing out all the 100x leverage shorters out there?

We're once again in an important rotation zone.

On the 1 hour there is not enough momentum for a change in the daily bear scenario.

If we break out here longs are to be considered. However, a send south puts us right back into a 1 way street to 10k.

The 15min

The 1min

You see the one minute has rotated at a crucial point at the 15 min, which will rotate at a crucial point on the 1 hour....

Up, or down?

Nota

Rejected once, rejected twice?

Nota

Getting painful to watch this ship go down, this will likely reject, and in a few hours we will retest. If the momentum is slow, we're going down folks.

Else, break out now.

Nota

Bulls need to break and hold 33,500

Nota

Bulls this is not good for you

Nota

We need momentum up. I always trade against the tides. Because they peak right before they recede.

Nota

If we zoom out, the 5 minute is rotating down.

Nota

Price can keep increasing, but if it doesn't break the momentum shift downward, we're going to break the 21 ema and the trend will change:

The 15 minute is *almost* at that point, that means in a few hours we can retest and even push 33,700, but if it doesn't hold, we're going down momentum wise on just about every time frame.

GOOD LUCK BULLS!

Nota

Now we zoom out of the 1min:

To the 5min:

Nota

To break the momentum shift of the 5 we need to break 33,800 here:

Nota

The trend on the 1 minute is at a critical point

Nota

If 1 min trend breaks down we will test and likely bounce off the 21 ema on the 5 min.

1min:

5min:

Nota

A breakout here is crtical for bulls to break the momentum on the 5 min.

A breakdown, with enough momentum downwards will send us back below 33,200 and from there we watch the 15 min to confirm the move on the 1 hour.

Nota

On the 15 a retest of 33000 is in order.

Nota

Guys I worked a lot today, so ima hit the spa. Watch the key zones, on the 5 min we have to break 33,700-33,800 and hold above that to move up, on the 1 min if trend continues downward back around the levels we made this chat then watch for the bearish break.

I will update in a few hours.

Nota

okay 1 more chart while im still at my desk:

Nota

The 5 Min is below the 21EMA

looking for 5 min trend change, or a bounce.

Nota

zooming out, 4hr

Nota

5 Min:

lets see what happens in the morning... later.

Nota

Alright, good show. Bitcoin hasn't done anything too solid yet since these moves are taking a long time for price to swing. If bitcoin moved in this range earlier, it would be clearly bullish.

the 5 min attempted a bounce off the 21 ema, now we could start correcting again on the 5 min, so keep your eyes open.

Nota

If the bulls can move up to 34,400 and hold, they have a chance at increasing the momentum on the 15 min.

Otherwise we're in a tough zone on the 4 hour to break through, and the correction on the 5 min should send us to retest 33,500

Nota

Looking to see if this rejection off 34,000 will play through. % is testing the 21 ema

Nota

We're testing the 15 min 21 ema, if we get a solid bounce here, we will be getting close to bullish territory.

However, a correction here reaffirms the larger move down on the larger time frames.

Nota

" If the bulls can move up to 34,400 and hold, they have a chance at increasing the momentum on the 15 min."

Alright, so here we are. The 1hr is showing a potential momentum shift down, the 15minute is showing a potential shift down.

Now, the problem with 34,400 price is the timeframe, it wasn't as stong as the lat push, and the rsi is leading the price, and could bring price back down.

1hr:

15min:

Looking for the restest of the 15min 21ema

Nota

the 5 doesn't reveal much information, but is testing the 21 ema, the 1 min is testing the 21 ema, we'll see what it does here or if we're ranging and will range back down.
1 min:

Nota

I'm so bearish because of the big picture.

They say DCA is the best strat, so why dont you DCA every trade?

I start with the large time frames and get a general trend, then use that to determine where the lower time frames should be headed, we're trending down on the daily, 4 hour, the 1 hour had a bounce, but it's not enough to buck the trend, which means a selling opportunity to the bottom of the range, and if it breaks, to very low levels. The 15 is a decent TF to watch, it gives a little heads up to what the 1hr is doing, which marks the tops and bottoms the best. When the 1hr is exhausted you get trend changes on the 4 hour if it's near exhaustion you get major trend changes, otherwise you get interm trend bounces/moves.

The 1 min gives a nod to the 15 and the 5 can help clarify volatility on the 1 min.

Huge moves can come unexpected, but they have to carry some serious momentum, larger than previous pushes to do anything but dead cat bounce.

You could try to day trade those levels, but that means a lot of in and out and choppy rotation zones are there to stop you out.

So I am happy selling these higher price levels till price shows some strength.
IE start selling a little knowing price is moving against me, and then when we get a second momentum shift/confirmation over a larger time frame, up the ante. This is how I nailed the 60k top. We could possibly be correcting on a smaller wave cycle and perhaps 100k-124k is the next target. However if this is a wave 4, then it could easily hit 13k at the top of wave one and still be valid to go back to 100K+

We're atleast likely to return to the initial zone we're selling at before a big move up pushes the momentum to new highs (momentum not price) we could hit 36-39k before the big push down as well.

Just look at 2017's bearish structure, we're down on the weekly rsi and we're below the 21 day ema.

this is bearish, and the H&S that bitcoin likes to typically fake out might actually print on the daily. on log this means a big move. with the equal distance log wise from 30k to 60k is right around 17.5-19k.

Good luck trading

This is not finacial advice.

Nota

So the 15 is starting to trend down, we'll see if bulls can bounce up after crossing the 21 ema, right now we're sitting under and the trend is possibly reversing down.

Now, if we get the down move, the next bounce (if there's a bounce) will potentially take us to 35-36k using the 1 hour keltner channel for those targets.
That is the last chance for the bulls to stop the large movement down.

If it can't bounce and stop a larger down trend from forming on higher timeframes, then I will stay bearish. A move down to 33,200 zone, a retest is likely, after that we'll have to see if bitcoin choose the bear or bull.

Nota

15min:

Momentum had consolidated a while, price is starting to push up.

Rejection here is imporant for the bears, a move to 35k will start building momentum on the 15 min

Nota

Edit: that is the 5 minute chart, on the 15min we are under resistance:

Nota

So far the next two candles haven't pushed up momentum wise and we'relikely
to restest 34,600

Nota

15 min:

Nota

15 min is starting to gain momentum, but 1 hour is at resistance.

Need a big move here for the bullish scenario.

Nota

1 hour

Nota

Looks like the bulls got what they wanted:

Guess papa Elon is pumping

Nota

Retest will be around 37k

15 min:

Nota

1 hour

Nota

We'll retest 38,200 if we don't get a breakout here.

If we break down 38,200 will reassess the situation, otherwise look for a bounce and more bullish action

1hour

Nota

Got a down move well below 38,200 the 1 hour is testing the 21 ema, perhaps we'll see a deeper correction now.

Nota

If this larger correction plays out, target is 32,800

15 min

1 hour

Nota

starting to look like we could bounce and test 38000 before trying to head lower.

Nota

The 15 min got a lil break down starting:

Nota

While the 1 hour was already in breakdown territory:

Nota

important level for bulls to break out
15 min

hold here gives bears another chance to change trend on the 15 min

Nota

got a slow break on the 15 min and a bounce off the 2 hr ema/keltner channel

Nota

Just been consolidating on the 2 hour

Nota

other critical point for bears/bulls

15 min

Nota

breakout territory

Nota

more consolidation, keeps rejecting a breakout at 40k.

we'll see what happens tonight, bound to break one way or another:

Nota

Here is the one hour:

Nota

Been watching the 2 hour since price had been riding the 20* ema on it.

Getting close to a make or break "Inflection point" we need to break 42,00 and hold or hold a momentum shift, price, under the 2hr 20 ema.

Nota

I'm still bearish, this is a new opportunity to sell again. There is always the chance for this to move up, but we're looking at a possible momentum shift on the 4hr and 2 hr back down.

Nota

So far so good

Nota

Price is still going down, slowly grinding. This blows my momentum trades since momentum effectively dies and signals fade.

So dunno where to take profit, or short term long with the current situation.
this could just push down and really mess with the bulls.

Biggest bull trap ever?

Thisisnotfinancialadvice

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