BTC Scalp

24 Jun

BTC is heavily oversold on the 4HR. Price bounced off of an important support, as well as dead on the longer term .618 fib from ATH.

1HR is also extremely oversold. Daily is not quite there, so I'm not sold on a full on reversal, most likely I expect a bounce up to the .618 fib from this most recent drop, and then a continued sell off until the daily RSI is significantly oversold as well.

24 Jun

Nota

Have entered long now at $58,700.

24 Jun

Nota

S/L moved up to 59,030 to lock in profits. Position still open.

25 Jun

Nota

S/L moved up to 60,200. Still holding.

25 Jun

Nota

Woke up to price alarm.
Sell order filled at 62,100.
Leveraged longs closed, spot buys still open with SL moved up to 60,500.

25 Jun

Nota

I should clarify, I'm using Coinbase for my chart, but am using Binance for as my broker. This is why the numbers do not add up on the chart, as my long term chart that I have been working on for over a year with important price levels are all on this Coinbase chart that I am working to move over to my Binance chart.

26 Jun

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Raised S/L sell limit orders for the spot purchases to $61,700. Got stopped out and filled, so completely out of the trade on both margin and cash positions.

27 Jun

Nota

Perhaps BTC looking for a second support test / double bottom before proceeding? Daily is oversold, but still has room to move, 4HR has resolved for the most part allowing for more down. We'll see.

If it does return back to the low, I will likely long for a longer term trade in anticipation of a double bottom and a reversal.

30 Jun

Nota

This looks to be a decent zone for a long entry. I would wait for confirmation of a breakout, but it looks more likely to me that the MACD flips to the positive on the daily versus the lower horizontal support breaking.

Lower time frames still look very crabby, so I'd stay out of a position until further confirmation, and if it breaks to the upside, right the momentum up.

30 Jun

Nota

For context, the horizontal support BTC is currently resting on is a strong long term inflection point. Breaking it would be very bearish, but I don't think that is the likely scenario. Any long play would be immediately invalidated if it does break down.

1 Jul

Nota

Daily MACD cross here, and LB Squeeze pushing to flip. One candle that closed above the downtrend line, another one waiting to print in 19hrs to confirm. I think this could be a really good long entry point if trading on momentum with confirmation.

3 Jul

Nota

Watch carefully, BTC could be testing and confirming it's support, or it could be testing support in a bearish effort to break through.

Tough to call a position here, a long should have a tight stop loss, and short the same. Both could pay off well. A break below this horizontal support would be quite significant, a confirmation of this support and a bounce off it would be a significant move as well.

I'm not trading this move, just putting my observations out there.

5 Jul

Nota

Final update. As noted above, the break of the long time horizontal support should have immediately invalidated all longs and stopped them out.

I won't be trying to catch this knife.