Bitcoin Morning Update – Tuesday

Bitcoin Morning Update – Tuesday

Market Overview:
We are in an interesting place in the market right now. Following the recent bear action, we have had a reaction off the old demand range that caused the big move all the way back in November. This is the last support before we get accepted back into the 230+ day range that we created for most of 2024.

The question everyone is asking: is this a deep higher time frame retracement, or is this the beginning of a longer-term bear trend? We will have a result in the next few weeks, but as traders, it doesn’t matter because you can capitalize either way.

Market Structure Analysis:

Bears' Perspective: Daily structure has officially turned bearish. However, weekly structure remains bullish until we see the result of price action at the 2024 range.

How to Play the Market This Week: There is a nice chance of a reaction from the position we are currently in. It is an SFP of the Friday, 28th February low, and we have seen a flip in structure, which is our usual confirmation. However, the risk-to-reward is not ideal.

If we get a notable retracement back into demand or at a 50%–85% Fib level, I will be entering a long. If you are Trader A and do not mind paying a slight premium in expectancy for the trade, that is understandable also—a long here is viable.

Key Levels to Watch:

First Obstacle: 81K – Caution should be exercised at this level.

Local Target: 84K – Breaking this level could lead to an easy liquidity sweep back to 90K.

Execution Strategy: To get an entry on this trade, we will likely see a bearish transition in fractal market structure (10m structure). When that happens, I would like to see a flip in the other direction on the same timeframe before pulling the trigger on this one.

Bearish Scenario: Right now, I am not prioritizing shorts because we are trending deeper into demand. If I were to engage in a short, it would be a simple bear range continuation scalp.

Let's see what London and New York bring today. 🚀