Bitcoin Trading and Investment Strategy (April 2025)

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around the mid-$90,000s after rebounding ~25% in April, with market sentiment shifting to greed​. BTC’s dominance is high (~64%) as capital concentrates in Bitcoin over altcoins​. On-chain data shows large holders (“whales”) aggressively accumulating, even as short-term traders turn optimistic​. Below is an actionable strategy.

BTC broke out of a multi-month falling wedge pattern, signaling a potential bullish reversal​. On the 1H/4H charts, momentum is bullish: a textbook double-bottom formed on the daily with a neckline around $87,600 was breached, confirming upside targets near $100,600​.

A bull pennant consolidation is visible on the 1H after the sharp rally, hinting at another leg up (measured move target ≈ $100,900 on breakout). Short-term EMAs (20/50) on 1H/4H have turned upward and are stacked bullishly, aligning with the daily 50 and 200 EMAs which have flipped into support​. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in bullish territory without extreme overbought readings, leaving room for further upside​. Volume has been steady to rising on upward moves​, indicating buyers remain in control.

Immediate support lies at the breakout zone of 87K–$90K (prior resistance now turned support). This area includes the daily double-bottom neckline (~$87.6K) and coincides with the top of the earlier consolidation range. Bulls want to see this zone hold on any pullback. Below that, secondary support is around $84K and roughly the 4H 200 EMA area.

Resistance is clustered at $94K–$95K (recent local high region). A 4H close above $95K with strong volume would likely trigger momentum buyers. Beyond there, $100K is a major psychological level and the short-term target from multiple patterns – importantly, a dense cluster of short seller liquidation levels sits around $100K, making it a “liquidity magnet” for market makers. Expect heavy order flow and possible volatility as BTC approaches six figures. Above $100K, minor resistance could appear near ~$102K (projected wedge target)​, then prior ATH ~$108K–$109K.

For longs, scale out profits in layers as BTC advances. First TP around $100K – just before the round number – to avoid slippage if a wave of selling hits there. If momentum is very strong, hold a portion for a possible extension to $102K–$105K (wedge target zone)​. A stretch goal for bulls would be the $108–$110K area (all-time high region)​, but tighten stops well before this level as profit-taking is expected near ATH.

If BTC falls back under the 87K neckline after having broken out, it would negate the double-bottom breakout and likely accelerate downward​. Thus, stop-losses for longs can be placed just below 87K (e.g. $86K) to cap risk.

The breakout from the wedge/base was accompanied by a surge in volume​, confirming institutional participation. Volume has not dried up on this rally – a positive sign that the trend could sustain​. Overall, the daily chart structure sets the stage for a potential run back to five-figure territory (100K+), provided key support levels are defended.

Any dips into the high-$80Ks are buy-the-dip opportunities as long as BTC quickly reclaims $90K. Below 87K, the next critical support is $80K–$84K. $84K was highlighted as a crucial level – failure to hold 84K during the last pullback would have signaled capitulation. It held then, so watch it on any retest.

Stop Loss:

• Short-Term: 5–10% below entry ($90,000 for $92,500 entry).
  
• Mid-Term: 10–15% below entry ($85,000 for $91,000 entry).
  
• Long-Term: Monitor support ($80,000) but hold unless fundamentals deteriorate.
  

Position Sizing:

• Short-Term: 1–2% of portfolio per trade.
  
• Mid-Term: 5% of portfolio.
  
• Long-Term: Up to 10% of portfolio.
  

Risk/Reward: Target 2R for short-term, 3R for mid-term, and let long-term investments ride based on fundamentals.

Not a financial advice. DYOR.