BTC – Bullish bias under review: 102k/103k supports in focus

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Technical Overview – Summary Points
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• Momentum: Dominant on all major timeframes (1D, 12H, 6H, 4H). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator signals STRONG BUY except on 15min (neutral).
  
• Support/Resistance: Structurally key pivot zone 102k–106k; major supports 102k/103k. Potential breakout above 106k (swing target 109k).
  
• Volumes: Normal across all timeframes. No excess signals, no accumulation/capitulation peaks.
  
• Multi-TF Behaviors: Horizontal consolidation with bullish dominance. Short-term bearish divergence on 2H–15min, micro-TF in correction only, no panic.
  

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Strategic Summary
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• Global Bias: Solid bullish structure as long as 102k/103k hold. “Risk On” maintained by sector outperformance.
  
• Opportunities: Entries on pullback/main base 103k–104k; breakouts to watch above 106k.
  
• Risk Zones: Clear invalidation <102k, potential rapid flush to 97k–88k; keep strict stop-loss below 102.5k.
  
• Macro Catalysts: FOMC, Fed projections, Middle East geopolitics keep volatility high, but no shock. Price action leads near-term strategy.
  
• Action Plan: Swing buy on confirmed support, dynamic hedge post-news, monitor volumes/closures on key pivots.
  

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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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1. 1D: Bullish momentum, major supports intact (102k/105k). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = STRONG BUY, stable volume, no excess. Healthy structure for long swings.
   
2. 12H: Positive bias, range 102.6k–106k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = STRONG BUY.
   
3. 6H: Presumed accumulation 103k–106k, momentum still strong. No volume weakness.
   
4. 4H: Range oscillation, structural support test at 103k. Sector outperformance, neutral volume.
   
5. 2H: First sign of short-term weakness. Divergent with higher TFs but no panic.
   
6. 1H: Technical rebound towards 104.8k possible as long as 103k support holds.
   
7. 30min: Short-term trend remains bearish (trend 30min = down). Correction/purge ongoing.
   
8. 15min: Neutral momentum, supports being tested. No panic or melt-down observed.
   
9. Summary: Strong bullish confluence on higher TFs, temporary divergence on micro-TFs. “Range with bullish bias” scenario as long as 102k/103k holds the structure.
   

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Macro and Fundamental Analysis
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• FED/FOMC (June 18): Rates unchanged, “data dependent” guidance. Raised volatility but no risk-off shift.
  
• Market Sentiment: BTC technical structure holds, moderate post-FOMC volatility.
  
• S&P500: Above all key moving averages. Sector momentum (software, uranium, semis) remains dominant.
  
• Energy Level: Weak oil = little macro pressure against BTC.
  
• Geopolitics: Israel–Iran escalation / US posture reinforced. High FX/oil volatility but BTC resilient (>102k), no panic on record.
  
• Economic Calendar: Closely watching BoE & SNB, but low BTC impact odds.
  
• Implications: Post-news phase = ideal for range trading, no rupture event expected within 48h.
  

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Strategic synthesis & R/R guidance
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• Long on pullback 103–104k, swing targets 106/109k. Optimal R/R (>2.5) if stop 102.5k (D Pivot Low).
  
• Invalidation area: Clean close <102k or heavy downside volume (capitulation via ISPD/volumes).
  
• Risk Management: Dynamic stops, partial hedge post-FOMC during macro volatility.
  
• Conclusion: Bullish structure preserved. Range trading scenario dominant, no extreme signals or panic. Actions: support watch, technical buy on confirmed pullback.