BTC Back to $100K — The Final Dip Before All-Time Highs?

15 Mei

Bitcoin has been trading slowly and steadily just below its all-time high at $109588. The key question now is:

💭 Is BTC ready to break through and print a new all-time high? Or does it need one more dip before liftoff?

Let’s break it down.

Elliott Wave Structure & Market Context

BTC recently completed a clean 5-wave impulsive structure, with Wave 5 topping out into a major resistance zone. That confluence included:

• Value Area High (VAH)
  
• Weekly resistance
  
• Daily multi-level clusters
  
• Final resistance zone before price discovery
  

After multiple rejections from this zone, BTC lacked the momentum for a breakout — so a retracement was expected.

And that’s what we’re now seeing: a textbook ABC correction.

📉 ABC Correction Breakdown

• ✅ Wave A: Dropped sharply, nearly tapping the psychological $100K level
  
• ✅ Wave B: Retraced into the prior resistance band between $106133 and $104464 — rejected perfectly off the 0.786 Fib of Wave A
  
• 🔄 Wave C: Now unfolding
  

To project the potential bottom of Wave C, we use the trend-based Fib extension (Wave A = Wave C). The 1:1 extension lands at:

🎯 $99875 — Right at the $100K psychological magnet

Add this confluence:

• 🟢 Key swing high at $99475
  
• ✅ 0.5 Fib retracement of the entire 5-wave rally
  
• 🔍 Psychological Level: $100K
  
• 🔑 Liquidity and demand zone
  

This makes the $99K–$101K area a strong, high-conviction support zone.

🟢 Long Trade Setup

• Entry zone: Ladder between $101K – $99K
  
• Stop-loss: Below 97K
• Target: New all-time high at $109588
  
• R:R: ~3:1+
  

Structure: Correction into high-confluence zone + psychological level = high probability setup

📌 Summary:

• BTC likely finishing Wave C of ABC correction
  
• $100K = confluence of Fib, structure, psychology, and liquidity
  
• Setup is simple: Wait for price to retest this zone and trigger your plan
  
• If this level holds, BTC may be ready to attempt a breakout into price discovery
  

Let the chart come to you — and trade the reaction, not the anticipation. 📉🔁📈

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If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.

16 Mei

Nota

Possible scenario over the weekend:

19 Mei

Nota

Bulls are firmly in control — BTC is breaking through key daily levels. A retest of the all-time high looks to be the next target.

21 Mei

Nota

🚨 Quick BTC Update:

BTC printed a clean SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) at ATH. Played out as I was expecting it. Stay cautious!

21 Mei

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

🚨Bitcoin Update:

Bitcoin just reached a new all-time high today but was quickly rejected, forming a clear Swing Failure Pattern (SFP). This was an example of how price often behaves around major psychological levels. Right after sweeping the highs, Bitcoin dropped sharply by -3%, offering a clean low-risk short opportunity.

Educational Insight:

All-time highs often act as liquidity zones. Price pushes above to trigger breakout trades and stop-losses, only to reverse. This is the SFP in action. The key is not the breakout itself, but whether price can hold above. If it quickly falls back below the level, that’s a strong sign of rejection and potential reversal.

Pro Tip:

When price nears an ATH, watch lower timeframes (5–15 min) closely. A strong wick above the level followed by a close back below, especially with a volume spike, is a high-probability setup. Enter on the confirmation, not the impulse, tight stop, clear invalidation, better R:R.

Key takeaway:

Don’t chase breakouts blindly at ATHs—wait for confirmation. Always track how price behaves after the level is touched.