BEAR SCENARIO ANALYSIS - BTCUSDT - 1D
WHAT WE HAVE
Down trend (degressive actually, selling pressure well represent in volumes)
Strong buying exhaust (price is moving strongly with volumes)
Selling pressure (First selling signal appear on fictive level)
Contradictory strength (Second selling signal appear with a selling volume candle)
WHAT I THINK
First I will say, this isn't a short signal because the setup doesn't appear after an up trend so it cannot be trade as reversal pattern. Furthermore there is no clear resistance on the spot except the $50,000 level witch is fictive and mental. It appear in a period where retail seems to be more present so it can occurs some panic movement. For all of this, it will stay for me a selling pattern but not a trading signal, probability to reach target are lower than it should, so let's wait a better signal are trade other timeframes. Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions.
Still, it stay interesting to analysis, the movement is brutal and could correspond to a false breakout of the underlying channel. Also we don't have many buying volume. And to finish target isn't inconsistent, it seems to correspond with a convergence of primaries supports and could occurs to be a nice weekly support with reversal setups around $35,000.
In contrast, if we see an invalidation before the end of the week, here for my bullish friends : it would be synonymous of up trend start. Unfortunately there isn't, usually, a lot of probability to see this appear BUT I will post an other analysis, bullish on another timeframe this time, and you will see it isn't fool to think it could appear.
To finish, be careful on your trades, if I had only one advice to say from what I see it should be : "Wait to see where the market want to go and follow the trend".
PS : Apologize for my english, I do my best. Merry Christmas everyone !
Down trend (degressive actually, selling pressure well represent in volumes)
Strong buying exhaust (price is moving strongly with volumes)
Selling pressure (First selling signal appear on fictive level)
Contradictory strength (Second selling signal appear with a selling volume candle)
WHAT I THINK
First I will say, this isn't a short signal because the setup doesn't appear after an up trend so it cannot be trade as reversal pattern. Furthermore there is no clear resistance on the spot except the $50,000 level witch is fictive and mental. It appear in a period where retail seems to be more present so it can occurs some panic movement. For all of this, it will stay for me a selling pattern but not a trading signal, probability to reach target are lower than it should, so let's wait a better signal are trade other timeframes. Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions.
Still, it stay interesting to analysis, the movement is brutal and could correspond to a false breakout of the underlying channel. Also we don't have many buying volume. And to finish target isn't inconsistent, it seems to correspond with a convergence of primaries supports and could occurs to be a nice weekly support with reversal setups around $35,000.
In contrast, if we see an invalidation before the end of the week, here for my bullish friends : it would be synonymous of up trend start. Unfortunately there isn't, usually, a lot of probability to see this appear BUT I will post an other analysis, bullish on another timeframe this time, and you will see it isn't fool to think it could appear.
To finish, be careful on your trades, if I had only one advice to say from what I see it should be : "Wait to see where the market want to go and follow the trend".
PS : Apologize for my english, I do my best. Merry Christmas everyone !
Penafian
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