This was an incredibly aggressive downward move. It may not be over, but I believe the chances of a short term low are very good.
Now we will have a "dead cat bounce" but I would expect this to be aggressive and hit somewhere in the green retracement area. I would sell that to cash once we reach that area and then wait to see what happens. Markets never just reverse from moves like this and make new highs. As a matter of fact, I've never seen a downward move this strong that just went straight up... but its bitcoin so I hate to save never.
Still. I would sell the green area between sell 15-16k and then WAIT. I will put a sell orders between 15k and 16k then watch to see if we can break higher. You lose out on maybe 10% gains but its safer.
More likely is that we will then retest lows again sometime in the 3-10 day mark. Markets make lows, bounce then love to come back and test the lows before going higher. In other words 12k to 15k make 20-30%. I'll look to scale back in between 12k-3k then stop at 11k or maybe earlier if I see more weakness.
This is a trade. If you are a long term holder this is just part of the bitcoin experience. Keep your BTC in your wallet and hang tight.
If we come back down below $12k again today then be careful as it may make another run lower, but it looks like the recovery is strong as panic buyers and coming back in.
We'll pay close attention to $15500 on this USDT chart or $15800 on Coinbase. This was the neckline of the head and shoulders that dropped. So let's see if a previous support line becomes resistant.
Alt coins are bullish with strength. People shook off the drop like business as usual. Will the market punish these people that sold the bottom then just bought back in with panic FOMO buying? Scrambling to buy alts as they boomed? We don't know, but the market can be cruel that way.
So I will take profits, enjoy the Christmas holiday and just observe. Peak at the market now and then.
I will look to buy back at $12000-$13000. However, I want to see some signs of strength in volume and confirmation of a big wick on an hourly candle to add to the position. Bitcoin turns fast so you have to be ready.
If we stay strong like the V correction at $5500, then I will look to scale back in just over $16300 and slowly add with strength. I'll miss a small portion of the move but I'll sleep better. And trust me, I want bitcoin to go up to help my long term holdings. This is about being cautious. The market needs to tell me its ready to go. Strong momentum down could easily take us to $8000 and I don't want to ride that train.
Good luck out there and Merry Christmas
So after running around the lows, Bitcoin 7.10% 7.28% came up and tested this resistance line around the $16k mark.
Now we get find out how this story ends. Is it going lower? Or are we ready to march towards $30k?
The bullish case: We want to see bitcoin 7.10% 7.28% meander and continue to make attempts at at the $16k mark. Crypto loves to form triangles, so an ascending triangle here that breaks up with some volume would be ideal and I'd add back my long position.
The bearish case: We start to fall from here with momentum. If we get back down below that $14500 mark which is short term support, then expect us to start knocking on the $12k door and we don't bounce, then it could get ugly.
At this point its 50-50. Hard to gauge the market on a holiday as we basically just slowly went sideways. If big players decide they want to get out of bitcoin 7.10% 7.28% at this level, the failure to break could bring on more aggressive selling.
Let's hope $16k breaks up.
I want to see an hourly close at this level then confirmed with the next bar closing with a higher candle.
Just a few minutes ago we pulled back so it may take a few shots before we get above it.
The only thing that bothers me right now is that we don't have an increase in volume. But that could change.
Volume would show me that buyers are coming in. I don't see any big sell walls on GDAX so thats a also good sign. But let's see what happens here the next few hours.
The first attempt gave a nice green hourly candled that we wanted to see. The current hour has not been able to break through and give us a higher high high and a full break with confirmation. Right now its forming a red bar that may close below the previous hours bar which would signal a short term reversal.
As I said earlier, not seeing the volume I'd like to see either.
But its not over yet. We may end up dipping for a few hours to gain a little steam before taking another shot at it at $16k.
If we break the high of that candle at $16147 then I think we'll make it through and start ascending.
So still neutral waiting for more signals.
This weakness is unfortunate but in the long run its better if the market consolidates a bit before it goes higher. Lets just hope we don't fall past the recent lows.
I will now begin to scale in. I'll get long with a stop below this afternoon lows. Then I will add as we raise and dip.
Like any trade, there is a chance that it fails, but I like the move and volume especially being late at night on what was generally a slow boring evening of trading.
My guess is is we drop through today. Second situation is that we build a triangle then drop in a few days. I'd rather see one more aggressive drop before we move forward and just get it over with.