Bitcoin: Descending Triangle Breakout

13 Sep 2017

Since the 4945 high Bitcoin witnessed on September 2nd we have seen some bearish signals, resembling the correction seen earlier in June. Taking June as the base scenario for trend analysis, where the market experienced a drop of 38.55% from the June 11th high (2978) to the July 16th low (1822), and assuming that investor sentiment will behave in a similar manner; a price drop of the same magnitude will see Bitcoin´s price at around 3000 levels. The first bearish signal was lower highs, with key support in the 4000 range, thus forming a descending triangle. The 4000 support break and volume spike confirm bearish price action, with the next support tests at: 0.5 Fibonacci levels of 3600, 0.382 (3300), and 0.236 (3000). Based on June price action, the similar scenario would be the 0.236 level just bellow the 100 moving average at around 3000. At this point, if the MACD is around -37, 3000 may be an ideal entry point with a tight stop loss to prevent bearish continuation.

Similar to the market reaction in June, this does not look like a Bear Market. A correction that in any other market would be catastrophic (30-40% drops), seems to be the norm in the cryptomarket. Until the lower high trend line is not broken, bearish price action may continue.