What if BTC entered a Bear Market?
Many indicators show we are entering or we might have already entered a Bear Market. By looking back to 2018 we can understand how the Bear Market look like for BTC. Google trends on search of Bitcoin also shows we are in similar situation as Mar 2018. The retail interest into Bitcoin has definitely gone down.
But what happened to 100K and 250K we were predicting? Well apparently in this cycle we have missed it. It might be because when everyone knows a pattern or cycle, it won't work ever again. The 4 year cycle of Bitcoin price that is caused by halving is gone for good. This of course doesn't mean Bitcoin won't go to 100ks and 1Ms. This means the short term and Mid term price prediction won't be that easy, however nothing has changed for the long run. In last cycle the reason for Bitcoin price appreciation was Retail investors. In this cycle it was supposed to be institutions, but because the decision making process in institutions are not as fast as individuals, this is going to take time, and probably we need another cycle. For the next cycle everything will be there. From Investment funds, Super Funds, Other non-investment institutions, Governments, Central Banks. We need to go down because they haven't filled their bags. Once they do we will be back up again.
Ok, What would it look like if we are in early June 2018?
1. We assume we went to 100k, while we didn't. I got the bar pattern and tried to match with today's chart.
2. We are going to 25k, and that's might be it for now.
3. We will retest 40k.
4. We will have a period of low volatility for 5-6 months.
5. Another break in the support might take us to 10k
6. We are back to 70k in a year
7. 100k in 2.5 years.
8. 300k in 3 years.
As I said, assuming we are entering a Bear Market and it looks like 2018 Bear Market, this is what we will get. Of course it will be much more painful for the Alt coins. But this doesn't look scary at all. Time to set up your SMSFs and load the bags on when you can't resist.
Please not that this is not a Financial Advice.
But what happened to 100K and 250K we were predicting? Well apparently in this cycle we have missed it. It might be because when everyone knows a pattern or cycle, it won't work ever again. The 4 year cycle of Bitcoin price that is caused by halving is gone for good. This of course doesn't mean Bitcoin won't go to 100ks and 1Ms. This means the short term and Mid term price prediction won't be that easy, however nothing has changed for the long run. In last cycle the reason for Bitcoin price appreciation was Retail investors. In this cycle it was supposed to be institutions, but because the decision making process in institutions are not as fast as individuals, this is going to take time, and probably we need another cycle. For the next cycle everything will be there. From Investment funds, Super Funds, Other non-investment institutions, Governments, Central Banks. We need to go down because they haven't filled their bags. Once they do we will be back up again.
Ok, What would it look like if we are in early June 2018?
1. We assume we went to 100k, while we didn't. I got the bar pattern and tried to match with today's chart.
2. We are going to 25k, and that's might be it for now.
3. We will retest 40k.
4. We will have a period of low volatility for 5-6 months.
5. Another break in the support might take us to 10k
6. We are back to 70k in a year
7. 100k in 2.5 years.
8. 300k in 3 years.
As I said, assuming we are entering a Bear Market and it looks like 2018 Bear Market, this is what we will get. Of course it will be much more painful for the Alt coins. But this doesn't look scary at all. Time to set up your SMSFs and load the bags on when you can't resist.
Please not that this is not a Financial Advice.
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